Environment Committee on Nov. 8th, 2018

[Mike Lake, Edmonton—Wetaskiwin, CPC]

Thank you for taking the time to come today.

I represent the biggest riding by population in the country, with some significant rural area as well: it's about fifty-fifty in Edmonton and outside of Edmonton. A pattern we noticed over the summer was that our normally clear blue sky has not been so clear and blue over the last few years. It led me to look into some figures regarding emissions from forest fires over the last few years. I'm kind of following up on Wayne's questioning.

Can you tell us, say, over the last four or five years, what the amount of emissions from forest fires would be in Canada?

[Matt Jones]

I'm sorry, I don't have those numbers in front of me.

We have an inventory group that keeps track of these numbers. They're not represented here today, but they are quite significant.

[Mike Lake]

Would it be accurate to say in the neighbourhood of a third of emissions in Canada would come from forest fires? A quarter to a third? It's a big number, isn't it?

[Matt Jones]

It's a very big number.

I'd be hesitant to speculate about the precise number, but it's certainly quite significant. It's not just Canada. Forest fires are an increasing source of emissions in many countries around the world.

[Mike Lake]

Canada probably has one of the highest percentages in the world because of our large land mass, our large forests and our smaller population. That would make sense.

It's also fair to say they're not considered at all under the Paris Agreement. Is that accurate?

[Matt Jones]

A number of measures are being pursued in a number of countries to address fire suppression, but in terms of the target setting it's generally not part of the commitments.

The commitments are more focused on direct emissions from tailpipes and smokestacks. It is certainly something the international community is very aware of, and there are a number of countries, including in Latin America, that are looking at fire suppression. China actually included reforestation efforts and increasing forest cover in its national commitment, so it's certainly something we're looking at.

Land-use accounting is built into our targets.

[Mike Lake]

Thinking about forests as a sink and thinking about Canada's vast forests, is there a calculation on how many emissions are absorbed by Canadian forests every year?

[Matt Jones]

This is something that we haven't landed on officially yet, but Canada has indicated in past communications with the UN that we do plan to, as per the rules of the Paris Agreement and other agreements that preceded it, account for the carbon sequestered in immense forests here in Canada—

[Mike Lake]

In a quantification of that?

[Matt Jones]

Yes, we're landing on a quantification methodology now and hoping to report on that very soon. That's something that has been a placeholder in our past reporting while we sort out the methodology. It's more complicated in Canada than it is in smaller countries, and it's something that we're trying to get right so that we can accurately account for it.

[Mike Lake]

It stands to reason that we could make a massive impact on our contribution to greenhouse gas emissions by tackling our forest fire problem, and yet we would get zero credit under the Paris Agreement for doing that, even if we did it year after year. Even if we produced some expertise around it that we could export around the world, we would get zero credit for that.

[Matt Jones]

Not necessarily. Land use, the carbon sequestration associated with—

[Mike Lake]

That's specifically on the emissions from forest fires. I'm not talking about land use. I'm talking about the emissions from forest fires.

[Matt Jones]

Yes, but it's a net accounting. If there are changes in the forest stock, either from logging or from forest fires, that affects the map of our accounting. This is something that we're building into our accounting, along with our direct emissions.

[Mike Lake]

To be clear, you're talking about the forest stock, not about the emissions that are released into the atmosphere from the burning of forest fires.

[Matt Jones]

It would be best to have an expert from the Canadian Forest Service here. They are working on this as a full-time job. My understanding is that there is a carbon accounting that involves both the release from logging or forest fires but also sequestration from increased forest cover.

[Mike Lake]

If we could cut 150 megatonnes of emissions from smoke in the atmosphere from forest fires, we would get credit for that?

[Matt Jones]

It's a complicated accounting where we're looking at what is considered the managed forest, which isn't the summation of the entirety of the boreal and other forests here in Canada. I'm really not the expert in this area.

[Mike Lake]

Okay.

I have a couple of questions with the rest of my time here.

On the expected revenues from the carbon tax, or the price on carbon, what are those expected to be year by year and, let's say, by next year, the first full year in effect?

[Judy Meltzer]

The Government of Canada released on the 23rd estimates of revenues from the application of the federal system in Saskatchewan, Ontario, Manitoba and New Brunswick. Those are posted online. Again, these are led by Finance, but I do have them here. The estimated revenues—I know that you probably don't want me to read tables that are available—by province—

[Mike Lake]

Just overall in Canada would be great.

[Judy Meltzer]

I'd have to do that calculation, because we have it from the fuel charge component for those four jurisdictions. The one thing I would note is that there are plans that are still under development. The total proceeds from the federal system, including the output-based pricing system—because we're in the process of developing regulations—are still to be confirmed.

The numbers of revenue estimates from the application of the federal system in Saskatchewan, Manitoba, New Brunswick and Ontario are posted online. We can follow up on that if you'd like.

[Mike Lake]

If you can provide that, it would be great.

[Judy Meltzer]

Yes, absolutely.

[Mike Lake]

Then, as you provide that, very apropos of the discussion in question period over the last couple of days, if you can provide an accounting for the amount of revenue the government would receive from HST and GST charged on top of that carbon price, that would be fantastic as well.