Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen.
Thank you for the opportunity to speak to the committee today. My name is Doug Hooper, and I am the director of policy and regulations for Advanced Biofuels Canada.
Advanced Biofuels Canada is the national voice for producers, distributors and technology developers of advanced biofuels in Canada. Our members are global leaders. They have built and operate plants on four continents, with the capacity to produce over 12 billion litres of advanced biofuels annually. Here in Canada, they currently operate seven biofuel facilities, with annual capacity of over 400 million litres. They are working hard to supply clean fuels and develop new refinery projects in Canada to meet increasing demand for low-carbon fuels.
Since 2005, ABFC has provided federal and provincial leadership on effective biofuel policies that expand low-carbon fuel options, achieve measurable climate action results, and stimulate new investments and clean growth. I am here today to speak to your analysis of how to generate more bioenergy and bioproducts, and to advance innovation in the forestry, agriculture and waste sectors.
Specifically, I will address the potential of advanced biofuels to reduce greenhouse gases in Canada, and describe how the Government of Canada can incentivize their production. I will conclude by defining some of the economic benefits, and describe a path forward. Before I speak to those issues, let me begin by introducing you to biofuels use in Canada today.
Canada's renewable fuel industry was born several decades ago, as farmers sought to improve farm gate revenues and reduce dependence on foreign exports by producing ethanol made from our corn and wheat crops. Over the last decade, refineries to produce low-carbon, advanced biofuels, such as biodiesel made from canola, soybean oil and animal fats, and cellulosic ethanol made from biomass and municipal wastes, were built in Canada to meet demand for clean fuels under federal and provincial regulations, such as the federal renewable fuels regulations, and various complementary provincial RFS regulations.
ln 2013, British Columbia pioneered Canada's first low-carbon fuel standard, called an LCFS, for transportation fuels. Canada's clean fuel standard is now under active development by ECCC to apply this proven regulatory approach to fuels used in transportation, industry and buildings.
The adoption of renewable fuels regulations and LCFS regulations has opened up market access for biofuels in Canada, and stimulated investment in new refining capacity. lt has also contributed to significant greenhouse gas reductions. From 2010 to 2016, biodiesel and renewable diesel use has grown from 160 million litres per year to 540 million litres. Over the same period, ethanol use expanded from 1.7 billion litres to 2.8 billion litres. Annual greenhouse gas reductions from the elimination of fossil fuels used in cars and trucks has gone from 1.8 million tonnes in 2010 to 4.1 million tonnes in 2016. These are remarkable achievements in a short period.
However, despite having a wealth of sustainable forestry, agricultural and waste resources, Canada has fallen short of its goal to meet our biofuels demand with Canadian-made biofuels.
ln 2016, we produced 1.6 billion litres of ethanol, but relied on 1.2 billion litres of U.S. imports to meet our domestic demand. ln addition, we produced 415 million litres of biodiesel, most of which was exported to the more lucrative U.S. markets, and we relied on imports of 240 million litres of U.S. biodiesel and 300 million litres of renewable diesel from Asia and Europe. Over 2017-18, this trade imbalance is growing, with expanding imports of ethanol, biodiesel and renewable diesel today.
Let me turn now to your first question—what is the potential for advanced biofuels to reduce greenhouse gases in Canada?
Under the clean fuel standard, we anticipate that clean fuels will replace liquid fossil fuels to deliver at least 20 million tonnes per year of greenhouse gas reductions by 2030. This is two-thirds of the targeted emission reductions under the CFS. These reductions will come largely from advanced biofuels that are commercially established today—biodiesel, renewable diesel, ethanol and advanced ethanol. Emerging technologies such as biocrude and carbon capture are in the pilot and demonstration stage. They will expand clean fuel supplies and enable the deeper reductions that are necessary to meet our 2050 targets.
Advanced biofuels will replace gasoline in cars and diesel fuels used in trucks, locomotives, ships, airplanes and heating. Liquid fossil fuels will also be replaced by expanded use of electric vehicles, renewable natural gas and renewable hydrogen.
To achieve these emission reductions, renewable distillate fuel use could expand sevenfold, and ethanol and other renewable gasoline fuels could expand threefold by 2030. This is not a moon shot, but it is ambitious. It will require a transformation of our fuel supply systems.
This transformation is not confined to Canada. It is a global market shift. Canada has extraordinary potential to expand production, use and export of advanced biofuels. We need to reset our vision. Given our forestry and agricultural resources and technological know-how, Canada has the ability to be a global leader in advanced biofuels and other clean fuels.
To get there, we recommend that we develop a clear, focused clean fuel growth plan. A clean fuel growth plan would have three core elements. First is the clean fuel standard. The CFS will establish clear climate targets, create market access and expand consumer options. Complementary measures, such as carbon and excise fuel taxes, fuel economy, emission standards and RFS/LCFS regulations, are the second component. Number three is competitive conditions, programs and tax policies that create the appropriate conditions to attract the necessary investment.
Together these pillars will align market signals and address market failures to enable advanced biofuels and other clean fuels to meet our domestic needs and open new export markets.
In November, we released our 2018 ABFC capital project survey data. Over the period 2018 to 2030, our members collectively identified 44 new advanced biofuels production projects and eight facility expansion projects. These projects require capital investments exceeding $6 billion. Twenty of the projects exceed $100 million in capex. A further nine of the projects are estimated to cost between $50 million and $100 million to construct.
The projects span a range of technological processes, renewable fuel products and bioproducts. You will receive a slide deck with a summary of these projects and the data describing them. By 2030, they represent over 600 million litres of renewable gasoline fuel production capacity, over 2.5 billion litres of renewable diesel and biodiesel capacity, and one billion litres of biocrude fuels that can be co-processed into a range of finished fuels including biojet and renewable marine fuels.
Importantly for your committee's consultations, these projects represent utilization of up to 2.1 million tonnes per year of vegetable oils and animal fats, and up to 3.5 million tonnes per year of forestry and agricultural biomass residues and wastes. This significantly reduces our dependence on export markets and adds value to our natural resources.
Earlier this year we released a study on the economic impact of expanded biofuels production in Canada. If Canada increased its biofuels production capacity to 11.9 billion litres per year, Doyletech Corporation estimated one-time direct and indirect construction impacts of over $9.5 billion and 45,000 jobs. Annual operations would increase economic output by over $18.5 billion and sustain over 12,000 full-time jobs.
To build capital-intensive projects, investors are seeking to minimize and manage risks and generate stable and predictable returns. Over the past 20 years of global biofuels build-out, there's been solid evidence that performance-based production credits are an effective tool to support capacity investments. Capital support for commercializing novel clean fuel production technologies and new clean fuel infrastructure assets is also necessary. As with all dynamic technology sectors, targeted measures to support ongoing innovation and research and development are a core component.
We are currently consulting our members on the specific measures to address whether Canada is competitive to attract the necessary investment. We are looking at the measures that were announced in the fall fiscal update. We welcomed those announcements. We're looking at the economic strategy table recommendations that were released earlier this fall, and we're evaluating the federal and provincial policies and programs that currently are targeted at clean growth more generally.
As I stated earlier, our members are global leaders. We'll inform our analysis and recommendations based on their feedback.
In summary, advanced biofuels are a key partner in Canada's climate action and clean growth plans. We thank you again for the opportunity to appear today, and I look forward to your questions.
Thank you again.