Environment Committee on May 21st, 2024

[Derek Hermanutz]

We did the estimate for individual years. The number you're referring to, the 708, is not emissions reductions; that's total emissions in the country. When we talk about one-third, it's one-third of our expected reductions. Like Lawrence said, that's getting to 2030 when the carbon price is at its $170 level.

[John Moffet]

I'm sorry. I don't want to prolong this too long, but can I just clarify some of the numbers that you put out? You refer to one-third and 3%. Three per cent is the reduction in total emissions. One-third of those reductions are attributable to carbon pricing. It's not that carbon pricing has achieved only 3% of reductions. Carbon pricing has contributed to a third of total reductions.

[Michael Kram, Conservative, Regina—Wascana, SK]

Yes, but 3% of the total emissions have been reduced as a result of carbon pricing. Do I understand that correctly?

[John Moffet]

No, emissions have declined 3% in total.

[Michael Kram, Conservative, Regina—Wascana, SK]

Okay, so only 1% of those 3% are from the carbon tax. Is that correct?

[John Moffet]

That's correct to date.

[Michael Kram, Conservative, Regina—Wascana, SK]

Okay, so are we getting good value for our money? My party has talked a great deal about the need to invest in new technologies instead of just raising the carbon tax higher and higher and higher. If our total emissions have only been reduced by 1% as a result of the carbon tax, I can't help but think that there are other technological innovations out there that could be achieved at much less cost to consumers to reduce total emissions by that 1%.

[Lawrence Hanson]

Thanks for the question.

I think that would make the assumption that somehow the carbon price is a form of spending that could be redirected elsewhere, whereas, in operation, the carbon price is something that is charged and then largely revenue-neutral, where the funding is actually returned in various different ways, sending a price signal. It's not as if the carbon price is in a sense using spending that could be directed elsewhere for technologies and so forth.

[Michael Kram, Conservative, Regina—Wascana, SK]

Okay.

This committee has asked several times for the models the department is using for its emissions calculations. We've been redirected to a page on the department's website and we've gotten reports describing some of the formulas, but to date we have not received the entire model.

I was thinking the other day that if you go to the Elections Canada website, you can enter your postal code and look up which riding you're in and where you go to vote on election day. If you go to the Canada Post website, you can track where your parcel is and if it's being delivered.

Why can't Environment and Climate Change Canada post on its website the complete carbon tax model that it has been using, so that Canadians, members of Parliament and everyone can see how far along we are in terms of reducing our emissions and how much of that is attributable to the carbon tax?

[Lawrence Hanson]

Thanks for the question. Again, I'll start and then turn to Derek to provide additional detail.

It's probably worth starting with saying what we actually have provided so far and to maybe try to clarify a few things that came up in the earlier rounds of questioning.

What we've done so far has been to provide all the assumptions that drive the two reference cases: the one reference case with the existing measures and one with the additional measures. We've given a complete list of all the federal activities and provincial activities that lead to those two different reference cases, which you'll recall from the Order Paper question are Ref22 and Ref22A. We provided that and the numbers associated with that.

To be honest with you, the model itself.... The model is actually the code. It's the software language. It's the dataset and, as I think we noted, it's 280,000 variables. It wouldn't really be a matter of posting a model on a website. You'd literally have to post a computer on a website, because the model is really ultimately all of these things working together to come up with the modelling outcome.

[The Chair, Liberal, Francis Scarpaleggia]

We'll have to stop there.

[Michael Kram, Conservative, Regina—Wascana, SK]

I had six minutes.

[The Chair, Liberal, Francis Scarpaleggia]

Yes, but we're at six minutes.

Basically what you're saying, Mr. Hanson, is.... Do you know how, in the old days, you had printouts—computer printouts with lines and lines of code? The model would be a bunch of printouts with lines and lines of code, I guess.

[Lawrence Hanson]

Mr. Chair, Derek may explain it better than I'm capable of.

[Derek Hermanutz]

The code would actually be in the model, in the computer.

[Laurel Collins, NDP, Victoria, BC]

I have a point of order, Mr. Chair.

Is the time up? If you're going to cut our time down—

[The Chair, Liberal, Francis Scarpaleggia]

No. The time is up. We were over the time.

[Laurel Collins, NDP, Victoria, BC]

Yes. In the second rounds, you often cut our time down. I'm just wondering if we can try to avoid that happening.

[The Chair, Liberal, Francis Scarpaleggia]

Yes, for sure. That was my plan: to go the full time.

Basically it's code. You can print out the code and you can print out the formulas, but I don't want to take up too much time on this.

[Michael Kram, Conservative, Regina—Wascana, SK]

Mr. Chair, could you ask the witnesses if it's possible for the model to have a web interface?

[The Chair, Liberal, Francis Scarpaleggia]

I don't even know what that means.

[Michael Kram, Conservative, Regina—Wascana, SK]

Could you connect it to the Internet so that everyone can see it?

[The Chair, Liberal, Francis Scarpaleggia]

Can you have a web interface?

[Derek Hermanutz]

Not for this model, no. It's custom-made for us.

[The Chair, Liberal, Francis Scarpaleggia]

Thank you. That answers the question.

We'll go now to Mr. van Koeverden.