Thank you so much for having me.
Good afternoon, everyone.
My name is Madeleine McPherson and I'm an energy systems modeller at the University of Victoria, where I lead a team of researchers who develop models that focus on how to decarbonize our energy systems.
What we're seeing is that the electrification of transport and heating systems is at the heart of decarbonization, but it will only work if our power systems are decarbonized first. Some of our provinces' power systems are already decarbonized—B.C., Manitoba and Quebec are largely powered by hydro—but the fossil-dependent provinces will see enormous wind and solar build-outs to meet carbon targets at a rate we've never seen before.
To get to a net-zero power system by 2035, our modelling is showing that we'll need over 100 gigawatts of wind across Canada by 2050. Alberta alone will see about 40 gigawatts of wind by 2035 and over 80 gigawatts of wind by 2050. This will constitute most of their energy needs. It is an incredible amount of infrastructure to build in not very much time.
This is a huge opportunity, but only if we have the programs in place to train people, the supply chains to get equipment and the policies that streamline processes. That only solves one part of our problem, because once we build this system, operating a renewable base grid requires flexibility to mitigate variability—those times in the year when the wind doesn't blow or the sun doesn't shine.
Batteries and other kinds of storage will no doubt have a key role to play, but each of these future high-wind provinces conveniently neighbours a hydro-rich province. This characteristic, which defines the energy fabric of our country, is an opportunity that we can't ignore. If provinces had more transmission linkages, hydro in one province could balance the wind in its neighbouring province. Interprovincial transmission connection is coming out of our modelling work as a no-brainer.
The federal government has a critical role in making this happen, though. First, there's the question of funding for that infrastructure, either directly or by de-risking private sector investments. Perhaps more importantly, the federal family can help facilitate a conversation between the ministers and premiers in the provinces. One thing that's coming up in a lot of our conversations is ensuring that rates remain affordable and equitable, and that's coming out as a huge concern.
You can also start the engagement process with indigenous rights holders to ensure that free, prior and informed consent happens, ensure that benefits flow to indigenous communities, and ensure that this massive effort is a force for decolonization and a pillar of reconciliation.
I think there's a clear role for the federal government to play when it comes to providing leadership and direction on this issue. What's hopeful is that if the federal government and provinces work together to achieve this, I think we can get to net zero, but we have to start now.