Thank you, Mr. Chair and committee members.
My name is Janetta McKenzie. I'm the director of the oil and gas program at the Pembina Institute. I hold a Ph.D. from the University of Waterloo, where I researched oil and gas regulatory development. I've also worked on regulatory compliance in the pipeline industry here in Alberta.
In investigating the efficacy of Canada's emissions reduction plan, today I'd like to highlight two sectors whose emissions have changed dramatically over the last 20 years. I believe they tell a story of how strong, durable climate policies can work without damaging industrial competitiveness.
First, Canada's electricity sector has achieved a massive reduction in greenhouse gases while growing its output. The sector has reduced 68 million tonnes, or 60%, of its carbon emissions over the last 20 years while increasing generation by 10%. On the other hand, the oil sands, the handful of companies in Alberta where bitumen is produced, have seen an increase of 55 million tonnes in emissions since 2005. That's an increase of over 150%.
The difference is simple: policy. The electricity sector responded to clear, long-term climate policies. Ontario began its phase-out of coal-fired power in 2003. Building on that success, in 2012 Prime Minister Stephen Harper mandated a nationwide coal phase-out by 2061. Federal and provincial governments of different stripes built on that commitment, resulting in regulations that sought to eliminate coal emissions by 2030 nationally, all while giving provinces flexibility to meet that goal and industry the runway to invest in other forms of power generation.
In Alberta, despite protestations that it couldn't be done, in 2024 the last coal-fired power plant went off-line ahead of schedule, despite coal powering 60% of the grid just a decade before. Meanwhile, Alberta was initially flooded with billions of dollars of private investment in wind and solar projects, from which local governments collect millions of dollars annually in municipal tax revenue.
In other words, coordinated coal regulations are a prime example of durable, predictable climate policy that companies can use to make long-term investment decisions. It's also a good reminder that climate policies don't only reduce emissions; they also show the world that Canada is open for business for low-carbon investment. Globally, clean energy investment now outnumbers that in fossil fuels at a rate of two to one, reinforcing Prime Minister Carney's statement that climate action is not simply a moral duty but an economic imperative.
Now let me turn to oil sands. In contrast to electricity generators, oil sands companies have not yet been subject to policy, either federal or provincial, that has effectively checked their overall pollution. Despite rhetoric about climate policies damaging the sector, oil sands production and emissions are at an all-time high. The oil and gas industry overall is responsible for almost one-third of Canada's emissions, though only one-twentieth of our GDP.
For the oil sands and for all sectors, we need strong policies guided by clear targets and predictable timelines that investors can have confidence in. Conversely, as we have seen south of the border, whiplashing policies are damaging to industries, suppliers and workers.
Industrial carbon pricing is Canada's best tool for driving innovation in high-emitting sectors like the oil sands. It has enjoyed the support of heavy industry, including oil and gas executives, for well over a decade because of how it slowly and predictably gets stronger, allowing them to plan out more and more investment in decarbonization over time.
Unfortunately, the Province of Alberta has recently taken backward steps that weaken its industrial price, despite the fact that complying with the current system costs oil sands firms just a few dollars on the barrel. If what we want is a cleaner, future-proofed oil sands, or anything approaching decarbonized barrels of oil, then strong industrial carbon pricing systems efficiently channel millions of dollars of private capital towards that goal.
Finally, the fact that we are not yet on track to meet our 2030 climate targets does not mean that the emissions reduction plan has failed. Such measures as industrial pricing, clean electricity regulations and electric vehicle sales standards are long-term measures whose benefits will only be fully realized if they're given the time to do so. Much like preparing for a marathon, where every training run you do improves your fitness, every tonne that we don't emit and every low-carbon investment that is made improves our climate competitiveness. However, as the contrasting examples of the electricity and oil sands sectors show, we won't get there without long-lasting regulations and policies that investors can work with and depend on.
Thank you again for having me today. I'd be happy to take your questions.