Evidence of meeting #12 for Environment and Sustainable Development in the 45th Parliament, 1st session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was vehicles.

A recording is available from Parliament.

On the agenda

Members speaking

Before the committee

Hermanutz  Director General, Economic Analysis Directorate, Department of the Environment
Nichols  Assistant Deputy Minister, Environmental Protection Branch, Department of the Environment
Cauchi  Director General, Energy and Transportation, Department of the Environment
Yakobowski  Committee Researcher

Patrick Bonin Bloc Repentigny, QC

Thank you, Mr. Chair.

Ms. Nichols, you said earlier that greenhouse gas reductions are tied to the implementation of the standard.

Can you send us the supporting documents so that we can see all the details of your calculations?

11:45 a.m.

Assistant Deputy Minister, Environmental Protection Branch, Department of the Environment

Megan Nichols

Yes. I can certainly send them to you.

Patrick Bonin Bloc Repentigny, QC

Thank you.

I'll come back to the issue of the greenhouse gas emissions standard for light‑duty vehicles that you referred to. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the standard is designed to align with the American standards.

In 2026, what will remain of this standard, given that Mr. Trump is scrapping everything and rolling back these regulations? What will remain in Canada?

11:45 a.m.

Assistant Deputy Minister, Environmental Protection Branch, Department of the Environment

Megan Nichols

We're keeping a close eye on the situation in the United States. If we don't change anything, the standard for 2026 will remain in place in Canada, even if the United States eliminates all its standards.

If the United States were to implement what it announced, Canada would need to decide how to proceed with its own standard.

Will we keep the standard as drafted in 2026? Will we make it more stringent in the coming years? We'll need extensive analyses before making a decision.

Patrick Bonin Bloc Repentigny, QC

If Mr. Trump backtracks, which he's clearly doing, do you think that Canada should stay aligned with the United States?

11:50 a.m.

Assistant Deputy Minister, Environmental Protection Branch, Department of the Environment

Megan Nichols

It isn't my place to decide. Of course, we must keep cutting emissions from light‑duty vehicles.

The government must decide whether to maintain standards that apply only in Canada or to take a different approach.

Patrick Bonin Bloc Repentigny, QC

Overnight, the government removed the incentives for the sale of electric vehicles.

Do you see a correlation between the decline in sales and the end of federal subsidies for the purchase of electric vehicles?

11:50 a.m.

Assistant Deputy Minister, Environmental Protection Branch, Department of the Environment

Megan Nichols

As I said, we've seen a drop of about 9% in electric vehicle sales in 2025.

We believe that this stems from a number of factors, including the suspension of the incentives program. However, we must also take into account the tariffs issue and the current situation in the United States.

Patrick Bonin Bloc Repentigny, QC

Minister Joly and former minister Freeland, I believe, said that the government would reinstate the incentives.

Given that the government suspended this program, people have reportedly delayed purchasing electric vehicles and decided to wait for the reinstatement of incentives.

In your experience, do you think that people are waiting for the reinstatement of incentives before purchasing an electric vehicle?

11:50 a.m.

Assistant Deputy Minister, Environmental Protection Branch, Department of the Environment

Megan Nichols

I don't want to speculate and try to guess how Canadians will behave. However, we've heard that this is likely why some consumers have decided to postpone their decision.

Patrick Bonin Bloc Repentigny, QC

Okay.

Regarding the decline in electric vehicle purchases, in your opinion, what percentage is directly related to the fact that Canada no longer offers incentives?

There has been a decline, but is it a decline of 5%, 10% or 50%?

11:50 a.m.

Assistant Deputy Minister, Environmental Protection Branch, Department of the Environment

Megan Nichols

I would say that we've seen a decrease or suspension of incentives at the provincial level as well. The suspension of the federal program alone probably didn't cause the decline in electric vehicle sales.

We must also consider the current situation in the United States.

We haven't yet obtained the data needed to assess the percentage of sales driven by the federal government's decision.

Patrick Bonin Bloc Repentigny, QC

If we remove the zero‑emission standard, do you think that fewer models would be available and fewer affordable electric vehicle models would be available to consumers?

The Chair Liberal Angelo Iacono

I'm sorry. Your time is up. Thank you.

Mr. Bexte, the floor is yours for five minutes.

David Bexte Conservative Bow River, AB

Welcome, witnesses. Thank you very much for being here today.

We've heard a lot of rhetoric on both sides of this issue. I'd like some, maybe, hard stuff for a moment.

Have you done any good electricity demand forecasting for the next five or 10 years? Can you provide that data?

11:50 a.m.

Director General, Energy and Transportation, Department of the Environment

Mark Cauchi

Yes, provincial system operators, as you know, do demand forecasting for the provinces.

11:50 a.m.

Conservative

David Bexte Conservative Bow River, AB

Specifically, I mean including the EV mandate requirements.

11:50 a.m.

Director General, Energy and Transportation, Department of the Environment

Mark Cauchi

That's right. In our RIAS, we did do electricity system impact forecasting, so—

11:50 a.m.

Conservative

David Bexte Conservative Bow River, AB

How recent was that?

11:50 a.m.

Director General, Energy and Transportation, Department of the Environment

Mark Cauchi

It was 2023; that was the last—

11:50 a.m.

Conservative

David Bexte Conservative Bow River, AB

Did that include any of the potential grid requirements with the new economy, AI, data centres, etc.?

11:50 a.m.

Director General, Energy and Transportation, Department of the Environment

Mark Cauchi

It probably preceded that data centre push.

11:50 a.m.

Conservative

David Bexte Conservative Bow River, AB

Do you plan to update that?

11:50 a.m.

Director General, Energy and Transportation, Department of the Environment

Mark Cauchi

That is part of our review and what we go to [Inaudible—Editor] to assess.

11:50 a.m.

Conservative

David Bexte Conservative Bow River, AB

Okay, I'm going to go rapid fire with this, so be succinct.

The additional cost of—