Evidence of meeting #24 for Environment and Sustainable Development in the 45th Parliament, 1st session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was housing.
A recording is available from Parliament.
Interim Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
For 2100.
Bloc
Patrick Bonin Bloc Repentigny, QC
Okay. How do you explain the difference? In England, some people are talking about 50% of GDP between 2070 and 2080.
Interim Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
I haven't seen this study. I can't compare it with the data that you referred to, but I can do so this evening.
Bloc
Patrick Bonin Bloc Repentigny, QC
You can also send the written reasons to the committee. Thank you.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Angelo Iacono
Thank you, Mr. Bonin.
Mrs. Anstey, the floor is yours for five minutes.
Conservative
Carol Anstey Conservative Long Range Mountains, NL
Thank you.
Thank you to the witnesses for being here.
Mr. MacDonald, you talked about the mapping and surveying in some of the rural areas. I'm glad you brought that up, because I think that a lot of the areas, certainly in the riding that I represent, are very coastal and I think accuracy is important. The other side of the time frame is some testimony we've heard at this study and within this committee about the importance of the information being accurate and how over time things change, especially around coastal areas.
Have you mapped out what the appropriate time frame would be in order for this to be an effective tool, given that small little communities might not even have the resources to conduct surveys and ongoing surveys?
There's just some concern there. We want this to be a good, effective resource. How does time factor into it? Could you just address that?
Director, Economic and Social Analysis and Modelling Division, Statistics Canada
If I understand correctly, you're asking more about whether the data is still relevant for an event taking place in a smaller location.
Conservative
Carol Anstey Conservative Long Range Mountains, NL
Yes, and also just for things changing, because around coastal areas, things change. You're basing the information on surveys, but at some point there are changes that happen in coastal areas.
Director, Economic and Social Analysis and Modelling Division, Statistics Canada
Some of work we've been engaging in is trying to understand what is happening when a particular type of climate event is occurring. Thus far, it's predominantly been forest fires and floods. When we do that, we're getting the most recent possible geospatial information on the event and on the topography and the area in question.
Where the data is a bit behind is that socio-economic exposure layer we would be able to combine with it. When we did the stuff for, say, the flooding in B.C. a couple of years ago, we actually had daily updates from NRCan off the satellite feeds of where the flooding was. We knew what the topography of the Sumas Prairie looked like.
It's the socio-economic data on the businesses and the people that is about two years behind. We aren't able to say that this person still lives in that location or that this business is still operating in this location. What we get is, “In this area, there's a lot of activity, and it's roughly that per cent of the economic activity that's in B.C.—
Conservative
Carol Anstey Conservative Long Range Mountains, NL
Okay. You narrow in on it when there's an event. It's not more or less effective for mitigation or looking forward. It's more or less like the here and now, when something is happening. Is that correct?
Director, Economic and Social Analysis and Modelling Division, Statistics Canada
Yes.
Assistant Chief Statistician, Economic Statistics, Statistics Canada
If I may interject, we are working on something that might address your concerns. It's an analysis of residential properties and homeowners in high flood hazard areas. It's under peer review right now. It's using data from our housing program with some geospatial modelling provided by Public Safety Canada.
I think that might go more in the direction of what you were looking for. That's to come—
Assistant Chief Statistician, Economic Statistics, Statistics Canada
—in the short term, hopefully.
Conservative
Carol Anstey Conservative Long Range Mountains, NL
Sure.
My question for the Parliamentary Budget Officer is this: With DFAA costs continuing to rise, is there a way to determine how much taxpayers could save by shifting to this national insurance program?
Analyst, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
Are you talking about the national flood insurance program?
Analyst, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
In that case, the DFAA only covers non-insured losses or things that cannot be reasonably insured, but the majority of losses for flooding under the DFAA are actually for provincial and territorial or municipal infrastructure, rather than going to individuals. Therefore, the implementation of a national flood insurance program, although it might be beneficial in general, likely wouldn't have a large impact on the DFAA cost.
Conservative
Carol Anstey Conservative Long Range Mountains, NL
That's fair enough.
How much could we save if we redirected funds toward proven mitigation, like dikes, dams or home retrofits? Have you looked at that, potentially?
Analyst, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
We didn't dig deeply into that for this report since our forecast horizon is only up to 2034. From our perspective, it will take a long time for these mitigation and adaptation measures to affect the entire country. There's a lot of infrastructure out there that can and should be improved. From our perspective, it will take time for that to be seen in disaster relief costs, and that is not something we included in our 10-year horizon.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Angelo Iacono
Thank you.
Mr. Grant, you're our last speaker of the day.
You have five minutes.
Liberal
Wade Grant Liberal Vancouver Quadra, BC
Thank you very much.
Thanks to all of the witnesses today for the important testimony you provided.
Like Mr. Ross, I'm also from British Columbia, and we have talked a lot about British Columbia today.
I'll start with you, Mr. Vrhovsek.
How long does it take to see the long-lasting, tangible impacts of investments in mitigation and resilient infrastructure, particularly in high-risk flood areas such as in British Columbia?
Analyst, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
That isn't something I'd be in a good position to answer. That's probably a question that's best posed to Public Safety Canada.
I mentioned that although a specific investment in a specific location could immediately decrease its disaster risk, there are a lot of locations vulnerable to disaster, so it will likely take time for those benefits to be seen as infrastructure is upgraded over time.