Evidence of meeting #24 for Environment and Sustainable Development in the 45th Parliament, 1st session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was housing.
A recording is available from Parliament.
Liberal
Wade Grant Liberal Vancouver Quadra, BC
Okay.
I'll go back to your report projecting the cost of the disaster financial assistance arrangements program. You project that while “real costs per disaster will increase...over the next decade”, the rate of this growth from 2025 to 2034 will be “slower...than the growth observed between 2010 and 2022.” Can you explain why?
Analyst, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
Part of it has to do with the modelling we chose to use. We decided to use linear trends for the frequency and the severity of the disaster. We fit the model onto history, and there was a large jump toward the end of the time frame of the model, so the model doesn't capture that as a permanent increase. It's mitigated by the fact that we fit the model over a long period of history.
It's difficult to say what that impact will be in the very long term, but it's largely a result of the fact that these changes are very recent. We don't know if these changes will continue to accelerate rapidly, as they did in the last 10 or 15 years, so that's attenuated downward.
Liberal
Wade Grant Liberal Vancouver Quadra, BC
Ms. Withington, you talked about impact of the heat increasing and about the deaths in Montreal and Toronto from 2000 to 2020. However, since then, in 2021, my home province and my home city of Vancouver had a heat dome. Many people unfortunately lost their lives.
When and how are we going to incorporate those statistics moving forward?
Assistant Chief Statistician, Economic Statistics, Statistics Canada
That was done as a special study. I can find out what the plans are to have that updated. I do realize that's not as up to date as we'd like, and it will not reflect some of the more recent heat events.
Liberal
Wade Grant Liberal Vancouver Quadra, BC
Unfortunately, Vancouver is having increased heat more often in the summer, and we're noticing that.
I just want to quickly go to Mr. MacDonald. I noticed that you have a very interesting report entitled “Estimates of the economic activity in and around flooded areas in British Columbia.”
I used to be the chair of the First Nations Health Council, and one of the things we talked about was the social determinants of health, with climate change being one of those. We saw what happened in Lytton, in Merritt and frequently in the Sumas Prairie, which used to be a lake, actually. A lot of those places are in and around rivers and whatnot. I know you looked at rural and remote places, but the Fraser River estuary ends in my riding of Vancouver Quadra.
Are there any ideas about what could happen in and around urban areas because of climate change if we don't act now ?
Director, Economic and Social Analysis and Modelling Division, Statistics Canada
At the moment, I don't have anything around that kind of what-if scenario analysis. I will say that we're considering how to implement it, but there's nothing concrete at the moment that I could give you.
Liberal
Wade Grant Liberal Vancouver Quadra, BC
Given your knowledge around the high flooding risk in areas of B.C., how long does it take for communities to see the power and tangible impacts of investing in mitigation, adaptation and resilient infrastructure?
Director, Economic and Social Analysis and Modelling Division, Statistics Canada
Unfortunately, I don't have that for you either. The questions on investment and mitigation activities are not something that we have taken up yet. They are on the radar, though.
Liberal
Wade Grant Liberal Vancouver Quadra, BC
Okay.
Mr. Jacques, given the increasing costs of recovery, do you think it's just as important for all levels of government to prioritize investments in mitigation, adaptation and resilience as we move forward? I'm talking about first nation, municipal, provincial and federal governments.
Interim Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
Yes.
Liberal
Wade Grant Liberal Vancouver Quadra, BC
Thank you. I knew that was going to be a quick answer. That's why I asked that question.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Angelo Iacono
Thank you very much, Mr. Grant.
I thank all of my colleagues for their great questioning. I thank the witnesses.
Mr. Bexte.
Conservative
Liberal
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Angelo Iacono
I'd like to thank the witnesses for today. You are excused. Have safe travels back home.
Mr. Bexte, the floor is yours.
Conservative
David Bexte Conservative Bow River, AB
Thank you very much, Chair. I appreciate it.
I'd like to give notice of a motion with the committee. I believe this has been circulated and agreed to in advance by the parties. It reads:
That, notwithstanding the usual practices of the committee concerning access to and distribution of documents:
a. Up to three associate members of the committee per party be authorized to receive the notices of meetings and notices of motion and be granted access to the digital binder;
b. That the associate members be designated by the offices of the whips of each recognized party and sent to the committee clerk; and
c. That the provisions of this motion expire as of Friday, September 25, 2026, unless otherwise ordered.
I'd like to move this.
Liberal
Liberal
Eric St-Pierre Liberal Honoré-Mercier, QC
On a point of order, I'm wondering if Branden Leslie was participating in that vote just now or not.
Liberal
Conservative
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Angelo Iacono
Is there any other business? Good.
At the next meeting, we are meeting with the minister and the department. At the beginning of the meeting, I will give you a follow-up on what's to come after the break. In other words, it's called homework. When we return, we'll have some good work being done all together.
Thank you very much, everybody. Have a good evening.
