The way to do this is to build in a randomized control trial before you even deploy the program. This is what we were pitching to Natural Resources Canada. It took us a couple of years, but we eventually overcame the reticence. At the moment there are some changeovers. As I understand it, the OEE might be shifting to Environment Canada.
Really, it was all about setting up a randomized control trial in which you're comparing the status quo methodology based on the HOT2000 model. The HOT2000 model is a very old model. It's over 30 years old. I work with engineers who have basically told me there are newer models available, so even that model itself....
You want to compare the status quo to an alternative in which you use large samples of anonymized utility customer data and develop algorithms based on past adoption characteristics and the characteristics of the households using property assessment data that are publicly available. Then you compare these two approaches—the updated algorithm to the status quo. That enables you to identify what the benefit is of shifting to that statistical approach.
One of the colleagues I've been working with, speaking to different folks in government, conducted, using U.S. data, a simulation study that was able to find that it went from I think a 56% realization rate to an 80% realization rate. Of course, we need to test that in the field and complete a randomized control trial. That would be the way to deploy a program and identify the best and most welfare-enhancing way for households to participate in meeting net zero and decarbonization.