Our finding was that Canada has no choice. In the immediate term, the output-based allocation—the sectoral standards under industrial pricing—are working to prevent leakage and competitiveness risks, but when firms start to decarbonize more and the credit markets get tighter, that's not going to work anymore. We are going to have to find some other ways to protect against competitiveness impacts and the risk of leakage.
The European CBAM is a pioneering effort in that space. We're all watching it to see how well it does. It's not an easy challenge, but I think it's inevitable that Canada will have to go there. Other players are doing the same. Australia and Japan are considering it, and Norway and the U.K. have adopted it. We're seeing that any country with a seriously ambitious industrial carbon price has to think about how to protect the competitiveness of those industries, and border carbon adjustment seems the premier tool of choice.
