Mr. Chair, we're happy to appear before your committee this morning. I would like to acknowledge that this hearing is taking place on the traditional unceded territory of the Algonquin Anishinabe people.
With me today are Kimberley Leach and Elsa DaCosta, the principal and the director who have conducted much of the audit work on climate change that we have undertaken in recent years.
Since 1990, Canada has set out many plans, measures and targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but no target has been met. According to Environment and Climate Change Canada, national emissions in 2023 were 694 megatonnes. This is 8.5% lower than in 2005 but 14% higher than in 1990. According to the department's most recent projections, Canada will not deliver on its commitment to reduce emissions by 40% to 45% below 2005 levels by 2030. In addition, these projections have not been updated since the government repealed the consumer carbon price.
While Canada's overall emissions have increased since 1990, some sectors have achieved reductions, with the electricity sector leading the pack. With only five years left to meet the 2030 target, a significant shift toward implementing effective actions is needed in certain sectors, such as oil and gas. The time is now to take stock of existing policies and plans and to consider lessons learned from past efforts.
In November of 2021, I provided to Parliament a report that sets out eight lessons learned from Canada's record on climate change. The report is based on three decades of audits focused on Canada's action and inaction on the enduring climate crisis. Given Canada's disappointing track record in addressing climate change, we urged the government to ensure that its plans and actions work to meet its targets. At the time of our 2021 report, we noted that implementing the measures then in place was expected to yield reductions of 36% by 2030.
To help frame discussions on climate change such as this one, the lessons learned report also sets out critical questions for parliamentarians to consider as levers to prompt action against government commitments. We have provided these in an appendix to this statement today for your reference.
Environment and Climate Change Canada’s first progress report under the Canadian Net‑Zero Emissions Accountability Act, issued in 2023, shows that the gap between anticipated results from current measures and meeting the 2030 target persists. This legislation, if implemented diligently, should help establish the accountability and oversight needed to reduce emissions and meet targets.
Since 2021, our office has examined about 40 of the more than 140 measures identified in the 2030 emissions reduction plan or its progress report. Our most recent report on this topic, tabled last fall, highlighted six common themes from our findings, such as delays in the implementation of measures, unreliable estimates of emission reductions, and a lack of transparency.
In our audit work, we have noted that many experts and international bodies agree that a policy package with a range of measures, such as regulations and carbon pricing, can support deep emission reductions if they are stringent enough and applied widely.
The enduring crisis of climate change looms larger than ever. We are at a crossroads, globally and nationally, and we face difficult decisions on how we deal with a changing climate and what kind of a world we want to leave to future generations.
It is clear that new or enhanced measures are needed to put Canada on track to meet the 2030 emission reduction target. In this context, “on track” means three things. First, there needs to be a plan with concrete measures that add up to meeting or exceeding the target. Second, there needs to be reliable modelling of the reductions the plan is expected to deliver. Third, there needs to be an effective implementation of actions resulting in significant year‑over‑year reductions.
This concludes my opening remarks. We are happy to answer any questions the committee may have.
Thank you.