Evidence of meeting #9 for Environment and Sustainable Development in the 45th Parliament, 1st session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was cost.
A recording is available from Parliament.
Bloc
Patrick Bonin Bloc Repentigny, QC
In 2020, you received $128,000 from the oil industry. You are refusing to be transparent, which is deplorable. It's interfering with parliamentarians' work.
Ms. Doran, the Montreal Economic Institute seems to be saying that Canadian public opinion is not in favour of the net-zero law and related binding measures. You produced a poll that suggests the opposite. Can you talk to us about support for maintaining a net-zero mandate in Canada?
Executive Director, Clean Energy Canada
Yes. For starters, it depends on how you ask the question.
We have also polled Canadians about the electric vehicle availability standard, and two-thirds, 66%, said they would support this regulation either as is or with small adjustments. I think the reason for that is, as suggested, that the vast majority of Canadians know that electric vehicles save money over time.
Some of the arguments that are being put before the committee here are maybe looking at this as though it would be a public investment in trying to move people towards electric vehicles. It's anticipated this year that one in four vehicles sold globally is going to be electric. People are choosing those because they will save money over time. It's happening in places like Thailand and other smaller, less developed countries than Canada.
The kinds of targets we're seeing in Canada's emissions regulation are things we're seeing being met already around the globe. We see Austria at 24% and Belgium at 43%. This is where electric vehicles are already being adopted.
In Canada, we're going to see the vast majority of charging taking place in people's driveways. For around 80% of what people will need to power up their electric vehicles, they won't need to go to a gas station; they will charge up right at home.
For these reasons, trying to make sure the standard is kept.... It's going to be proven to bring down the upfront cost of electric vehicles, which, as my colleague suggested, is one barrier people have to adopting them. This regulation can help address that problem with some small adjustments to its trajectory to ensure people do feel that it can be achieved over time and is going to be retooled to meet their affordability needs. This is an important part of Canada's approach.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Angelo Iacono
Thank you, Ms. Doran and Mr. Bonin.
Mr. Bexte, you have the floor for five minutes.
Conservative
David Bexte Conservative Bow River, AB
Thank you very much, witnesses, for being here today. The committee really appreciates your time and commitment.
I'd like to expand on some of the themes that we've talked about a bit. Perhaps the Montreal Economic Institute can respond.
There's some discussion about the pure cost basis of intermittent renewables, but there is not a clear understanding of the need for baseload backup or batteries. Further to that is the scalability. We're at a bit of a threshold in terms of scaling generation and transmission, and I think it's very easy to get to a certain point, but going the next step is dramatic. Then, consider AI and data centres doubling the demand on the grid, especially in Canada, with its cold climate.
Can you please comment?
Vice-President, Communications, Montreal Economic Institute
Absolutely, and thank you for the question.
I think you’re right to point to the issue of opportunity cost. This is one of the major issues that are not being considered, especially with policies such as the EV mandate.
We are putting a very large load on the grid. Through the imposition of EV-only sales by 2035, this is going to need additional investment into the power grid, as we are talking about. According to some estimates, $294 billion would be necessary just to meet the needs that stem from EVs coming online.
The other part, of course, is that there are jobs that will not be created, because that electricity could have served to power other Canadian industries.
I'm sorry. I responded to one part of your question and want to get back to the first part, but I'm blanking right now.
Conservative
David Bexte Conservative Bow River, AB
It’s okay. It is a question further to scalability.
The demand on the grid is not going to be on just the normal trajectory for the economic activity today. There are new economies, like the reindustrialization of North America and the AI wave.
Canada has a cold climate and has an obvious opportunity. It is a good spot for AI, but the demand on the grid could double. What are the impacts?
Vice-President, Communications, Montreal Economic Institute
You’re absolutely right. Yes, AI is very energy-intensive, and we want some of that to be done with Canadian electricity, with Canadian energy, but the more we have these policies that mandate other parts to be electrified faster than they would be otherwise, the harder it is on the grid, the bigger the stress on the grid.
Then, of course, as you mentioned earlier in the question, there’s the issue of intermittency. When you plug in renewables, there are times when they work—and that is great and they are very low cost—but you always need some backup.
When you look at energy in the street, most people don’t talk about renewable versus non-renewable. They talk about baseload versus intermittency. Most of the renewables right now, unfortunately, are intermittent sources of energy, but there are other sources. There’s nuclear. There’s hydro. There’s also, of course, oil, gas and coal that exist, which are baseloads, and these remain an important part of Canada's energy grid.
Conservative
David Bexte Conservative Bow River, AB
Thank you very much.
There have been some suggestions that the renewables moratorium in Alberta was related to anticipating that we were going to get into a supply crunch because of the lack of backup. We did have brownouts in Alberta, and we had energy grid alerts.
Could you comment on that and on what that would look like across the country or what the risk of it is?
Senior Policy Analyst, Montreal Economic Institute
You're right. There were some bad experiences, specifically in Alberta, where there were brownouts. It's a problem, because there is increased demand for electricity, and that's partly due to EV sale requirements. However, the Clean Electricity Regulations require Alberta to change the makeup of its energy portfolio. This increases intermittency and reduces base load, and that becomes problematic. We have to be careful because we want a reliable energy system. Not all Canadian provinces are like Quebec, which has hydro when windmills aren't producing as much. It's more complicated for some provinces, such as Alberta and Nova Scotia. We have to ensure we don't create energy insecurity in Canada.
Conservative
David Bexte Conservative Bow River, AB
Thank you. I think I have time for one final question.
What do you anticipate if we stay on this trajectory of reducing GDP per capita? Well, maybe it’s increasing and maybe not, en masse, but what's going to happen to consumers when the grid can’t meet demand? What is going to happen by price, or what is going to be the opportunity cost to consumers?
Vice-President, Communications, Montreal Economic Institute
On the opportunity cost for consumers, part of it comes from jobs. There are jobs that are not going to be created. In a lot of provinces, there are some mandates to provide electricity for consumers first and industry second.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Angelo Iacono
Thank you. I’m sorry. The time is up.
The next speaker will be, for five minutes, Mrs. Miedema.
Thank you.
Liberal
Shannon Miedema Liberal Halifax, NS
Thank you very much to our witnesses.
We are here and focused on a study about Canada's 2030 GHG reduction targets, whether we’re going to hit them, and if we’re not, how to hit them better. It feels like we’re almost debating whether we should be in climate action, which is not actually the intent of the study.
There are leaders and laggards in any industry. Canada is trying to be a leader in a lot of ways, including in climate competitiveness. We can’t move forward collectively all together if it’s an “us versus them”, and there’s a lot of talk... You know, we need a just transition to a low-carbon economy, and I’m wondering, Miss Doran, if you could speak a bit to the thinking around retooling microcredentials and the ability for workers who are in the fossil fuel sector today to still be able to play in this, to have thriving careers and take care of their families in this transition that we are moving towards.
We know there will be a decline overall in jobs in the fossil fuel sector by 2050, but there will be almost a doubling of jobs in the clean energy sector. Please give me some thoughts on that.
Executive Director, Clean Energy Canada
There are a number of things, as I suggested in my opening remarks. Our own studies have indicated the growing role in the clean energy sector that's taking place, in everything from forestry and clean industry to those who will be driving the delivery trucks of the future. I think the question of microcredentialing or other pieces is a very specific one.
What I would say is that the group I have already spoken about, which we are chairing, looking at one Canadian clean economy, has really suggested the importance of some very simple tools to try to make sure we're not inadvertently preventing an apprentice who's looking to become a boilermaker in northern Ontario from going to work on hydroelectric projects in Manitoba.
I'd be happy, then, to offer the committee some thoughts in writing, from that particular group, around one of the particular ways that we can be improving and supporting workers as they make this transition. I will say that Alberta is renowned for its innovation. It has a broad, cross-sectoral energy workforce already. These are people who are going to be critical and essential for the energy transition. I'd be happy to provide greater detail to the committee as a follow-up.
Liberal
Shannon Miedema Liberal Halifax, NS
Thank you very much for that.
Can you also speak a little on the conversation of intermittency? How is the clean energy sector managing the intermittent renewables as we do this transition to net zero?
Executive Director, Clean Energy Canada
Absolutely. I think, because of the cost reductions I've been describing, the goal around the world is to maximize renewables. It isn't to say that they are going to be the full solution everywhere. It's how you use the lowest-cost resource for the most of what you need to accomplish. That's going to be done in a lot of creative ways. It's going to be done using things like interties between provinces that are resource-rich in renewables and provinces that may have some existing baseload power in nuclear or hydro.
I referenced already-distributed energy resources. It's this idea that the cars that we're purchasing as electric vehicles aren't just going to be a drain on the grid. They're a battery. They could be used to give power at those peak moments when our electricity grid needs it. One study in Ontario suggested that these kinds of distributed resources, when used properly, could meet 100% of Ontario's anticipated growth in seasonal peak demand. These are new kinds of solutions. We live in a smart technology era. We're going to be using energy more in smart ways. We don't have to build out the absolute hottest day or coldest day in the way we're designing our electricity grids when we start using some of these technologies in new and novel ways.
In addition to the lower-cost batteries I described, there are going to be a variety of solutions depending on the grid, but the goal will be how we can maximize this energy that is coming for free and that is now producing energy at the lowest levelized cost in most jurisdictions around the world.
Liberal
Shannon Miedema Liberal Halifax, NS
Thank you very much.
The Montreal Economic Institute witnesses noted that, if we reduced by a barrel here, another barrel is going to be produced somewhere else, but the world is all moving to reduce oil and gas consumption. Can you please comment on that, quickly?
Vice-President, Communications, Montreal Economic Institute
I'm sorry, but was the question for us or for Ms. Doran?
Executive Director, Clean Energy Canada
I'm sorry, but I heard Montreal Economic Institute as well. Would you mind repeating the question? I apologize.
Liberal
Shannon Miedema Liberal Halifax, NS
Could you comment on what they spoke about? If you reduce a barrel of oil here in Canada, you're just giving that opportunity for the creation of an additional barrel of oil somewhere else.
Executive Director, Clean Energy Canada
I think that presumes a few things. One is that we're already seeing reductions in the global price of oil based on just the uptake of EVs in China, but the electrification of end demand is going to influence the amount of oil that's needed overall, and I think.... I'm sorry. I see the time is up.
Liberal
Liberal
Bruce Fanjoy Liberal Carleton, ON
Chair, you were ready to lift the sign, but it was visible to the witness. I would ask that the witness be able to answer that question.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Angelo Iacono
My sign was not up in the air; it was getting ready. I actually gave extra time, because they didn't understand who the question was addressed to.
Please, members, make it clear which of the witnesses you're questioning, so that they're listening to the question being asked before you get to the final asking of the question. Then they will know who's supposed to be answering. It would help us a lot. Thank you.
I would like to thank all the witnesses for their presence today. I'm sorry to have cut you off. I have to keep control of the clock, but you're free to forward to us any follow-ups to complete your responses to the questions you were asked, if you weren't able to do so. You can forward this to the clerk, and it would be a pleasure for us to insert it in the report.
Thank you again for your presence, and I wish you all a lovely weekend.
The witnesses are excused, and this meeting is suspended while we prepare for the next witnesses.