I'm obviously not a technologist, but I've sat around circles to hear what some of the technologists are saying. What I am hearing, and I have no reason to disbelieve them, is that we are decades away or less. We're no longer talking about....
I remember sitting in a class with Dr. Hinton years ago when he was suggesting that artificial general intelligence was hundreds of years away. Then, in 2023, he shifted that approach to say that we're much closer than we ever thought.
The pace of technological development is happening at an exponential level. By all accounts from what I'm hearing, with no reason to disbelieve, we are much closer to superintelligent computers than we probably thought we would be just a few years ago.