Thank you, Mr. Chairperson.
Thanks to everyone for coming today. I trust that you will be giving serious consideration to an ongoing relationship with our committee, since we are interested in, and passed a motion to ensure that we have, some independent forecasting advice until such time as the mechanism in Bill C-2 kicks in. We hope this is the start of a regular appearance before the committee.
The main reason we need you here today is that the minister gives his economic update this afternoon, and we're in the middle of finalizing our report based on pre-budget consultations. We're trying to get a lay of the land that's as accurate as possible, starting with the surplus dollars available.
I'd like just a quick go-round on that again. Ellen has given us an indication not to expect more than $4.2 billion surplus for this year, and for next year a forecast of $5.3 billion. That is way lower than any of us expected. That's been a real eye-opener for me and I'm sure for others.
If I go back to the reports that you gave us all last October, I know that we're all in the neighbourhood. Global, for example, was thinking more in the line of $8 billion or $9 billion flexibility. I think that was the same for everybody across the board. So things have changed.
Since Ellen is the only one who has given us a specific number, does everyone here concur with that number, in a ballpark way? Are we looking at roughly $4 billion in surplus for this year?
Dale.