Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for giving us the opportunity to participate in the 2007 pre-budget consultations.
International health experts, including the World Health Organization, have warned that an influenza pandemic is inevitable; it's just a matter of time. The WHO is currently at phase three of six of their pandemic alert status. A movement to phase four would mean that avian flu influenza has gained the ability to spread efficiently between humans.
SARS taught us that we are vulnerable to the health, social, and economic consequences of a public health emergency. From a financial perspective, SARS cost the Toronto economy close to $2 billion, and according to the Toronto Dominion Bank it cost the national economy an additional $1.5 billion to $2 billion.
While harmful, the cost of SARS pales in comparison to the projected impact of an influenza pandemic. The Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters have predicted that Canada's economy could suffer by as much as $60 billion in lost productivity and medical expenses. Earlier this week the World Bank told the international conference on avian flu that the global economic impact could be up to $2 trillion. This economic downturn could result in a serious erosion of federal tax revenues. However, unlike SARS, the world has been made aware of the possibility of the next influenza pandemic. This provides government and the private sector the time to adequately prepare for this community-based illness.
Canada should be commended for its early action. It has been a recognized leader in pandemic preparedness around the world. However, according to published government figures, our national antiviral stockpile remains at 17%--sixth place among G7 countries--with no antiviral medicines allocated to prevent the spread of infection before treatment is required.
All other G7 governments clearly understand the value of preventative measures and have planned accordingly. France presently has the highest stockpile, with enough antivirals to cover over 50% of its population. Most recently, the United Kingdom announced its intention to double its antiviral stockpile to 50% of its population. Those countries' stockpiles allow for a strategy that incorporates both prevention and treatment. A prevention strategy is in line with and can help Canada achieve its pandemic planning objectives to minimize serious illness, death, and social disruptions.
Given the potential impact of a pandemic on the economy and our society overall, Hoffmann-La Roche recommends the committee adopt three key recommendations in its report.
First, the Government of Canada should expand its pandemic plan beyond treatment to include the preventative use of antiviral medications, or prophylactic use, especially during this initial six-month period when effective vaccines will not be available. Governments must be prepared to prevent the spread of infection before treatment is required, to mitigate health impacts and reduce worker absenteeism.
As an example, a recent public opinion survey of Canadian health care workers learned that more than 40% would not report to work if a pandemic hit. Health care workers claim that if proper preventative measures were in place by their employer, up to 90% would in fact report to work. The take-away message is that proper preparation and preventative strategies need to be in place to ensure essential workers are able to remain on the job in the event of a pandemic.
Second, the Government of Canada should be clear about its role with the private sector during a pandemic. At present, the government's Canadian pandemic influenza plan for the health sector does not provide clear direction to the private sector of their pandemic preparedness responsibilities. We are hearing from the private sector that this absence of clear direction has created a climate of confusion amongst businesses as to their responsibilities in the event of an avian flu outbreak.
The pandemic could significantly affect human resources and the ability of many businesses to maintain normal business operations. The Public Health Agency of Canada has estimated that during a pandemic, up to 35% of the population will become sick enough to miss work, and up to half of those people will require additional medical care. Providing clear direction to the private sector is needed for businesses to prepare effectively and maintain business continuity during an outbreak, thereby minimizing the impact of a pandemic on the overall economy.
Finally, the Government of Canada should assist small and medium-sized enterprises in their pandemic planning. SMEs play an integral role in our economy. Collectively they are the largest private sector employer, yet they do not have the financial resources or the skills and knowledge to effectively prepare for an pandemic on their own. This is why the government should introduce a targeted tax credit for the SME sector. This credit could be used for developing an organizational pandemic plan; acquiring a stockpile of antiviral medicines; and purchasing basic medical supplies, such as masks, gowns, and gloves.
Thank you very much for your attention to this recommendation. I will be happy to answer your questions during the question period.