Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
Good afternoon. I apologize that my head's in a little bit of a haze--too much cold remedy.
I want to make four quick points. First, I don't think we should put manufacturing and forest products in the same bag. They are two different situations and two different industries. I agree with my predecessor that the forest products industry, especially in Quebec, is in great structural change and in need of some serious assistance.
Manufacturing is a little different. If anyone had told us a few years ago that the Canadian dollar would be at parity, oil would be $100 a barrel, and China would be a major player, we would all have thought that manufacturing would be totally wiped out, but it's still here. It's undergoing a major restructuring as well, but all segments will be able to carry on.
This is also a worldwide phenomenon. It's happening in the United States. Its currency has declined quite sharply, and that has not prevented major layoffs in manufacturing in the U.S., Germany, France, and Japan. The new element in all this is intense global competition and integration coming mainly from China, which has now become the planet's manufacturer. This requires some adjustment on our part. I wouldn't sell our manufacturers short, because they have proved over and over again that they're able to adjust.
Complicating things further is the fact that the U.S. economy is now most likely undergoing a recession, and in my view it will not be a normal recession. It has been triggered in large part by a severe credit shock; therefore, it will take quite a while. This is not simply an issue that after a quarter or two or three the U.S. will be back. The U.S. won't be back at the same rates of consumption we saw in 2004, 2005, and 2006. Going forward to 2008, 2009, and 2010, you're going to see U.S. consumer spending much weaker than what we saw from 2002 to 2006. This is also a new wrinkle in this whole mess.
Does government have a role to play in all of this? Yes, it has a very important role to play. I wholeheartedly support the suggestion that was just made to help older workers, particularly in the forest products industry. More generally, governments should target assistance to individuals and not to firms or sectors. It's always a very complicated game if we try to pick winning sectors or firms, but individuals certainly need assistance, particularly older workers in single-industry towns in Quebec and other provinces. We support that wholeheartedly.
Finally, we are a small bank, but we have a cross-section of clients from different industries and sectors, mostly in Quebec but some in Ontario. Only about 20% of our commercial clients are in the export business. The other 80% serve primarily the domestic market, which in Canada is still doing reasonably well. Until further notice, Alberta and B.C. are still part of Canada, and the economies there are certainly going very quickly.
In conclusion, government has a role to play, and that role should be focused on assisting individuals and not firms or sectors.
Thank you.