Thank you, Mr. Chair, and thank you very much to all the witnesses for being here.
Since this is the first session of six on this topic, I thought I'd begin with just a brief explanation of why we Liberals pushed for these hearings of nine hours on the connection between the high dollar and jobs. And I'm grateful to our opposition colleagues for supporting this. The reason we're pushing for this is that the Liberals feel there's a looming crisis in relation to the high dollar and jobs and that now is the time for action.
Partly I say this using my economist's hat, because it is definitely true that when there's a major exchange rate appreciation, it will have an effect on jobs and manufacturing and other exchange-rate-sensitive industries, whatever the state of the economy overall. I'm only talking about exchange-rate-sensitive industries. But these effects operate with a lag. Companies can go on for a while, but when they make their new business plans, if the dollar is still high and is expected to be high, they'll plan to produce elsewhere, like in the U.S. It's likely that we've seen only the tip of the iceberg in terms of layoffs. We had 1,100 at Chrysler and 800 in forestry in the last few weeks.
My hypothesis is that if this dollar is sustained at parity or thereabouts for the coming year or year and a half, then what we've seen to date will only be the tip of the iceberg in exchange-rate-sensitive industries. The oil sector might be fine. The economy as a whole might be all right, but I'm talking about exchange-rate-sensitive industries like yours. I think, to use a Wayne Gretzky metaphor, a good government should be focused on where the puck will be down the road, not on where the puck is today. We know that 12 months from now, if the currency is still at parity--and that's an “if”--the situation may be a lot worse.
I should also say, just as a premise, that we don't think the government has a plan, so part of the purpose of these hearings is to get your advice to develop such a plan.
I would like to ask my questions as follows. My first question to those who represent industries with jobs at risk--maybe starting with Mr. Myers--is whether you agree with the hypothesis. You have problems today. But do you agree that if nothing is done, assuming that the dollar remains where it is, then looking ahead 12 months to 18 months, the situation will be even more dire in your sector?