Thank you.
We'll go to Monsieur Carrier.
Evidence of meeting #2 for Finance in the 40th Parliament, 2nd Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was 2009.
A recording is available from Parliament.
Evidence of meeting #2 for Finance in the 40th Parliament, 2nd Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was 2009.
A recording is available from Parliament.
9:50 a.m.
Conservative
February 5th, 2009 / 9:50 a.m.
Bloc
Robert Carrier Bloc Alfred-Pellan, QC
Thank you, Mr. Chair.
Good morning, Mr. Page. This is my first meeting of the finance committee.
Given that the current budget has been adopted and that exhaustive reports on various elements of the budget have been requested on a quarterly basis, I would like to know if you will be planning your audit accordingly. Can we expect comprehensive reports or notices upon tabling of these quarterly reports?
9:50 a.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Library of Parliament
Are you talking about the budget from my office or the Government of Canada's budget?
9:50 a.m.
Bloc
Robert Carrier Bloc Alfred-Pellan, QC
I am talking about the government's budget and the stimulus package that is currently being debated. It has been adopted and there is talk of presenting reports in March, June and December. This is in keeping with a specific request to track the action plan's progress, as set out in the budget. Under your current mandate, I would like to know if you will be involved in providing your own assessments concurrent to these quarterly reports.
9:50 a.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Library of Parliament
Mr. Carrier, with respect to the reports you referred to, my office is willing to develop an accountability framework for the government. If it is the committee's wish, I can begin work now and have an accountability framework prepared within two weeks.
If it is the will of Parliament for us to examine those quarterly reports, we would be happy to do that as well.
9:50 a.m.
Bloc
Robert Carrier Bloc Alfred-Pellan, QC
From what you are saying then, I gather that providing that framework is not automatically part and parcel of your current mandate, and that you need clarification in that respect.
9:50 a.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Library of Parliament
In my opinion, the review of those reports certainly ties in to our role in government oversight. To my mind, it falls within my mandate.
9:50 a.m.
Bloc
Robert Carrier Bloc Alfred-Pellan, QC
Therefore, you have no problem producing your own quarterly reports, just as the government does?
9:50 a.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Library of Parliament
That poses no problem for us whatsoever, sir.
9:50 a.m.
Bloc
9:50 a.m.
Bloc
Jean-Yves Laforest Bloc Saint-Maurice—Champlain, QC
Thank you, Mr. Chair.
Mr. Page, the budget includes measures aimed at stimulating the economy, and these include provisions to reduce personal income taxes, notably an increase in the basic personal tax exemption amount and changes to two tax brackets.
According to your analysis, will these measures be effective to reboot the economy? Can these measures be compared to the GST cuts implemented in recent years? That measure was rather significant, and was equivalent to $12 billion in lost government revenue. Are the tax cuts and GST cuts comparable, or are they different?
9:55 a.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Library of Parliament
The government has put forth proposals, principles, actually, in order to measure its own stimulus package. It's talked about, as you've talked about, temporary, targeted, timely. In the context of moving forward on permanent tax measures, in the context of a stimulus package that's not temporary, timely, or targeted, one may argue that this goes beyond stimulus, that these are long-term kinds of measures that were put in. In the context of an environment where we're very close to a structural balance right now and providing those types of permanent measures ongoing, it does push us right up against the line in terms of pushing into the area of a structural deficit. We've lost that margin to manoeuvre.
Again, to give credit to the Department of Finance and the government, they've released those multipliers for the different types of taxes. They include multiplier effects for the PIT taxes and for the small business taxes in the back of the book. I think they've certainly been transparent in that sense. In terms of a deep economic recession and trying to put temporary, timely, targeted stimulus measures into it by putting permanent measures in, it has created a risk in terms of the fiscal framework.
9:55 a.m.
Conservative
The Chair Conservative James Rajotte
Thank you.
Thank you, Mr. Laforest.
We'll go to Mr. Wallace, please.
9:55 a.m.
Conservative
Mike Wallace Conservative Burlington, ON
Thank you, Mr. Chair.
Mr. Page, welcome.
I have a couple of questions for you and then a couple of procedural.... Since this is the first time you're in front of us, it's just so that I understand the process from your office in dealing with parliamentarians.
You're presenting today your response to the budget that was released, which I appreciate. What was the normal process for that? We happened to call you here as a witness for today so you're able to do it here today, but does your department or does your organization have a plan on how to release this and future information, since it should come to parliamentarians first? What's the plan on that?
9:55 a.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Library of Parliament
Sir, thank you for the question.
On our website, we actually have a description of our operating model. This talks about how we have to decide on priorities. Just like the Government of Canada, we have limited finances and we have to decide based on a certain priority. Basically we use, like the Auditor General, a materiality and risk framework to decide on which priorities we can look at within the context of our mandate. Our budget right now is $1.8 million. My whole team is actually in this room right now, to give you a sense of the size of this office.
9:55 a.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Library of Parliament
No, I'm going to get to your question.
9:55 a.m.
Conservative
9:55 a.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Library of Parliament
I apologize, sir.
If I can go right to your question, sir, if requests come from committees, sir, we will take the reports back to committees. They will be presented first here, then posted on our website after a committee discussion.
If there is some independent analysis—which we have done, as one of our analysts, Stephen Tapp, for example, has produced an independent analysis of deflation, which is a significant issue—it wil be released, sir. We'll post it on our website. It wasn't requested by a parliamentarian, but if there are requests coming from parliamentarians within a committee context, these will go back to the parliamentarians in that context.
9:55 a.m.
Conservative
Mike Wallace Conservative Burlington, ON
You did mention in your opening statement that you are working on a report that was requested by a member of Parliament. Is it part of your mandate that if any member of Parliament asks you a question, you respond?
9:55 a.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Library of Parliament
Again, we have three named committees in our mandate, this being one of them. With committee support here, you can ask us questions and those will be at the top of our priorities. It is also in our mandate, sir, for individual parliamentarians to ask us specific questions. But given our limited budget, sir, we'd certainly prioritize a question where there's a broad consensus in a committee and give it a higher priority.
9:55 a.m.
Conservative
Mike Wallace Conservative Burlington, ON
Okay, thank you.
I've read all your reports over the last number of months. In your January 21 report, you talk about how, relative to many other countries, Canada is expected to experience a milder recession as a result of its healthier fiscal position going into the recession. That was on January 21 that you released your report. Is that still your position?
9:55 a.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Library of Parliament
Well, sir, we actually don't do independent economic forecasts; we actually provide you with fiscal analysis based on surveys of other forecasters. I think if you look at the International Monetary Fund and the OECD, they suggest that Canada will experience a milder period of economic weakness relative to its major trading partners.
We are in an unprecedented period of time. The EU, the IMF, and the OECD are all calling for a recession in 2009 in the United States, a recession in Japan, and a recession in Europe.
9:55 a.m.
Conservative
Mike Wallace Conservative Burlington, ON
Right.
So when I read this just a few weeks ago, that “Governments across the world are being called on to provide economic stimulus measures to counteract the ongoing global recession. However, it is important to keep in mind that...”, and then you continued with your statement above, am I to take it that it was not your statement, but that you've taken it from somewhere else? Or is that actually your position?