First of all, thank you for your best wishes for Gerald. I'm sure he will really appreciate that.
On the issue of a guaranteed livable income and what it would cost, one of the reasons I said that this would take time to structure and design correctly is that there really needs to be work done on what programs get eliminated. There needs to be a conversation with Canadians. I think it's really the moment when Canadians can have a dialogue about what kind of country we want, what kind of social programs and infrastructure are necessary for that country, and then how economic security plays a role within that context.
Strictly speaking, though, in 1994 the human resources department did a study and a supplementary paper on guaranteed income. They pegged the total cost for a universal demi-grant at $146.1 billion, and the cost for a negative income tax, which only pays those below the poverty line, at $37.3 billion. Taken by themselves, those sound like giant numbers, but in 2004, government transfers to individuals in Canada—that excludes spending on all collective programs—was $130 billion.
So if we're talking about eliminating programs and rolling them into this program, then we're not talking about a great overall cost. And if any payments are being made to people whose incomes are over the poverty line, that money is being taxed back.
That's a bit of a complicated way of saying there's not a good answer for costs without doing the study.
On programs that should be eliminated, I think social assistance is the most glaring example of what should be eliminated. I believe old age security and GIS and the Canada child tax benefit could easily be rolled into a program like this. They're already structured as guaranteed annual income; they're just targeted at particular demographics.
On employment insurance, I think there's a legitimate debate. The real goal of employment insurance is wage replacement, but we've been using it as an income security program. Perhaps if we have a real income security program, then it can get back to its original goal of being a wage replacement program.
I think there are still areas of public infrastructure where we would still need spending. Obviously, health and education are the biggest examples. Child care is another example.