That's correct.
Evidence of meeting #65 for Finance in the 40th Parliament, 2nd Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was region.
A recording is available from Parliament.
Evidence of meeting #65 for Finance in the 40th Parliament, 2nd Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was region.
A recording is available from Parliament.
5:10 p.m.
NDP
John Rafferty NDP Thunder Bay—Rainy River, ON
They were, okay.
Mr. Wallace is concerned about the effect it has on the treasury. I don't want to get into it--
November 25th, 2009 / 5:10 p.m.
Conservative
5:10 p.m.
NDP
John Rafferty NDP Thunder Bay—Rainy River, ON
I don't want to get into a percentage point of GST disappearing, $6 billion leaves the treasury. I don't want to get into that kind of argument with Mr. Wallace.
How do you balance that? Well, you have HST in Ontario, and I don't want talk about that either. I'm finished here. Thank you.
5:10 p.m.
Some hon. members
Oh, oh!
5:10 p.m.
Conservative
5:10 p.m.
Liberal
Massimo Pacetti Liberal Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel, QC
Thank you, Mr. Chair.
Just quickly, Mr. Page, are you happy with the extra money you got on the supplementary?
5:10 p.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Library of Parliament
I understand there's a joint committee of the Library of Parliament--I think it's tomorrow--so hopefully we'll hear more. Our big issue, again, is what the funding levels will be for 2010-11. We're hoping that it will be at the original planned amount. Again, we're also hoping that it will be clear that we can hire the people who we have seconded.
5:10 p.m.
Liberal
Massimo Pacetti Liberal Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel, QC
Yes. This is relevant. I want to know how long he's going to be around. It's very relevant.
5:10 p.m.
Conservative
5:10 p.m.
Liberal
Massimo Pacetti Liberal Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel, QC
Yes, exactly, so I want him to continue to do it.
If we're going to talk between us--
5:10 p.m.
Conservative
5:10 p.m.
Liberal
Massimo Pacetti Liberal Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel, QC
I have a quick question on your estimates. You have a lower estimate and a higher estimate. On the lower estimate--I think in replying to Mr. Bouchard's question--you said it's an extrapolation of the Quebec numbers. Is it based on extrapolating from the national numbers, or is it from Quebec's? I'm not clear. In your presentation you say:
The lower estimate of $180 million is based on actual data from the Province of Quebec. The Quebec tax credit that has been available.... It is available in regions that comprise approximately 14% of the provincial population....
What is that 14% based on?
5:10 p.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Library of Parliament
That's based on an extrapolation of the number of people who are available to utilize this credit in the province of Quebec. We've extrapolated that across the country. You're quite correct: the lower estimate is based on the Quebec experience.
5:10 p.m.
Liberal
Massimo Pacetti Liberal Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel, QC
But if you were to extrapolate it on a national level, considering the regional effects of Canada, would the lower estimate be closer to the $195 million? Did I understand correctly?
5:10 p.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Library of Parliament
One thing we're not allowed to do with the Quebec experience is actually model the exact regions, because they're not available to us for the rest of the country. We did some PBO analysis because the committee wanted us to look at regional analyses. We worked with Statistics Canada and we came up with the regions. We kind of created our own sort of economic region and tried to make it similar to what Quebec was trying to get at.
5:10 p.m.
Liberal
Massimo Pacetti Liberal Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel, QC
But your number of $195 million, are you comfortable with that? Is that not what you came up with as a lower end?
5:10 p.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Library of Parliament
Well, we're comfortable in terms of.... We think the assumptions that were used and the extrapolation of the Quebec model is a reasonable estimate for that. However, if you try to build something more from the bottom up and you have to create regions.... We worked with Statistics Canada. We looked at creating a model. We came up with estimates that would have a cost to the treasury that's not that different from that of the province of Quebec.
5:10 p.m.
Liberal
Massimo Pacetti Liberal Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel, QC
Okay. Now, just to clarify the confusion, there are three types of credits or deductions. You have a deduction that's similar to an RRSP or the northern tax deduction, which is a direct deduction against your gross. So you have a deduction of $3,000, let's say, and then you have what is called a non-refundable tax credit, which would be, as examples, your basic deduction and your deductions for medical expenses, charities, and disability. That would be $3,000 times 17% and that would be a non-refundable tax credit.
Then, on the last page of your tax return, you have a tax credit. For example, in Quebec, we have the Quebec tax abatement, but there's not very much there. The political tax credit is a tax credit. That would be direct money off your taxes payable.
What are we looking at here? Is it a deduction, a non-refundable tax credit, or a tax credit?
5:10 p.m.
Assistant Parliamentary Budget Officer, Expenditure and Revenue Analysis, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer, Library of Parliament
Sir, in this case, the particular nature of this tax credit is that, unlike a tax credit assessed at a 17% value, this is a tax credit at 100%.
