The quality of forecasting is something we look at. If we look at forecasting relative to consensus and relative to other external observers, such as the IMF, which publishes a forecast for Canada, on average we are slightly better than that consensus since the recession crisis and the recovery. There has been a pretty wide range, though—standard deviation, if you will—around those forecast outcomes.
Let me make a point, though, about the forecast going forward, which is that we have marked down the outlook for the United States and correspondingly the outlook for Canada—there are other reasons for Canada. But importantly, and you touched on some global issues, there have been some very large so-called tail risks in the global economy: the risks around the euro, the risks around the fiscal cliff, which you mentioned. There has been substantial progress in reducing those tail risks.
So even though we now expect the European recession to last longer, Europe is in a better place today than it was in October. Even though U.S. growth has been marked down—and it may actually be lower than we expect, depending on the outcome of the current debt ceiling negotiations in the U.S.—the quality of U.S. growth is better, because what's supporting U.S. growth right now is better-quality activity in the household sector, in the housing market, and the start on corporate investment. So the sustainability of the position is better, and over the medium term this augurs well for Canada.