Yes.
Evidence of meeting #25 for Finance in the 41st Parliament, 1st Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was analysis.
A recording is available from Parliament.
Evidence of meeting #25 for Finance in the 41st Parliament, 1st Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was analysis.
A recording is available from Parliament.
4:30 p.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Library of Parliament
Are you referring to the differences in the manufacturing sector?
4:30 p.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Library of Parliament
Are you talking about the increase in the unemployment rate in general?
4:30 p.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Library of Parliament
We are talking about approximately 300,000 jobs.
4:30 p.m.
NDP
Alain Giguère NDP Marc-Aurèle-Fortin, QC
Thank you very much.
Do I have any time remaining? I have one minute left, I am spoiled.
Both Mr. Flaherty and Mr. Carney made it clear to us that the choice to have the Canadian dollar on a par with the American dollar was a political choice. They openly acknowledged that they were the ones who decided how to intervene on the currency market in order to keep the dollar floating.
On this issue, could you tell us essentially what impact this decision may have had on the job market in the industrial sector? Would we have lost so many jobs if the value of our dollar had remained at approximately 85¢ American? Now many witnesses are telling us that the parity between the Canadian and American dollar was what really hurt the job market in the industrial sector.
4:30 p.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Library of Parliament
It is difficult to provide a very brief answer. However, it is possible to analyze the relationship between the exchange rate and the job market or production in general in certain sectors. If you wish, we could have a conversation about what type of analysis we could do. Such an economic analysis would be possible.
4:30 p.m.
Conservative
The Chair Conservative James Rajotte
Thank you, Mr. Giguère.
We'll go to Mr. Jean, please, for five minutes.
November 2nd, 2011 / 4:30 p.m.
Conservative
Brian Jean Conservative Fort McMurray—Athabasca, AB
Thank you, Mr. Chair.
Thanks for your attendance today.
I'm only allowed five minutes, and I have many questions, so I'm going to make them brief. If you could make your answers brief, I'd appreciate it.
First, I'm looking through the “Status Quo Budgetary Balance Outcomes Given Economic Uncertainty” on the PBO website. I used to teach statistics, and I'm looking at the statistical analysis on this. I'm just wondering if you could get back to the committee on whether you used normal statistical procedures, including outliers and the 3% plus or minus to eliminate them. You have about a $62 billion difference in relation to your different confidence levels, and I'm just curious if you used that.
I understand that you can't get back to me on that today. But could you get back to the chair on that? Just normal statistical procedures would be fine, if you could get back to the clerk on what procedures you used in relation to that.
4:30 p.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Library of Parliament
Actually, sir, we published a paper on our website on exactly how we did it, and I think we could probably give you a quick response.
4:30 p.m.
Conservative
4:30 p.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Library of Parliament
In all of the methodologies, we create fan charts or—
4:30 p.m.
Conservative
Brian Jean Conservative Fort McMurray—Athabasca, AB
I didn't see it, I apologize, but if you could, I would like a quick response on that.
4:30 p.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Library of Parliament
Actually, sir, we'd be happy to provide it to you and to actually sit down and explain how we do it.
4:30 p.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Library of Parliament
We share this information with Finance as well.
4:30 p.m.
Conservative
Brian Jean Conservative Fort McMurray—Athabasca, AB
Good.
I agree with you in relation to your analysis and your comments on demographics. I can't tell you how much I agree with that. It is going to be the number one issue in the next 20 to 30 and probably 100 years.
The other issue I have is with infrastructure investments. You mentioned to Mr. Marston, I think, why you had not seen more productivity based on the investments in infrastructure. I think you really know, sir, with respect, that the Canadian corporations are holding their wealth right now. They're not investing, so they have billions and billions of dollars in their net cash accounts. If we look at this positively instead of negatively, it really gives Canada a dramatically important future once the recession stops, because they're going to be able to buy a lot of things. I see you nodding your head. You agree with me. Our Canadian corporations are well positioned for the future, and I just wanted to make that....
I thought you mentioned to Mr. Adler specifically that you couldn't name a country other than Canada that would be better positioned coming out of this recession. I'm just astonished, because I don't see any country.... I lived in Australia for three years. I lived in the United States for four years, and knowing the countries as I do around the world.... Can you name another country that will come out of this recession with a better future prospect for quality of life based on financial outlook?
4:30 p.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Library of Parliament
Well, I think, sir, when one goes back and looks at the experience of 2008-09 and the relative impacts in terms of output gaps and employment losses, and then looks at how we're kind of situated, there's a big difference between countries that actually had a financial crisis versus countries like ours.
4:30 p.m.
Conservative
Brian Jean Conservative Fort McMurray—Athabasca, AB
I agree. But can you name another country that's going to come out of this financial crisis with a better quality of life?
4:35 p.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Library of Parliament
I think, sir, you could just look at the IMF analysis of G-8 countries. If you look at Germany right now, if you look at its balances, if you look at its growth on a per-capital basis, if you look at its growth in general—
4:35 p.m.
Conservative
Brian Jean Conservative Fort McMurray—Athabasca, AB
But with respect, they don't look nearly as good as Canada does in relation to our economic output, based on our commodities, our stock market, our financial resources, and our trading partners. I mean, all analysis indicates that Canada is going to come out of this recession better than any other country. Germany is not one of those countries that even came to my mind, to be honest. With respect, can you name another country that you believe is going to come out of this recession better, just very quickly, without the...?