We've noticed, really over the past ten years, a significant increase in the amount of household debt, both credit and mortgage, that's being carried relative to personal disposable income. We're now at levels of debt relative to personal disposal income that we've never seen before. When you're an economist and you see these things that don't look sustainable, they're probably not sustainable, so something has to happen to correct them.
As economists, we feel this will mean that the rate of growth of real consumer spending over the next few years will be slower, so we've adjusted our forecast downwards to deal with that. That will potentially account for one of the big differences between our forecast and even the average private sector forecast. We think you have to recognize that consumer spending has to be slower. You have to have balance sheet repair at the consumer level.
Perhaps Chris....