Thank you, Mr. Chair.
I would like to welcome the guests.
I just have a brief comment about the job issue, and then I actually want to focus in on some comments around demographics.
I think it's absolutely critical that we remember that between 1998 and 2011 our federal public service grew by one-third, so we've gone from just under 300,000 to just under 400,000. Certainly that's much faster than GDP growth, and that's much faster than the population growth.
I think if one asks the average Canadian.... Yes, there are absolutely critical services that the government provides, but also, I was with the red tape reduction commission, and they were saying there is an awful lot of unnecessary red tape bureaucracy. So first of all I think we need to keep the job issue in perspective. It's always very difficult for anyone affected by job cuts, but I think we have to look at the federal public service and what are the key roles and responsibilities and really look again at that job picture over the bigger picture. I just want to make those comments, because 300,000 to 400,000 between 1998 and 2011 is very significant, and what additional services are Canadians actually getting?
The demographic challenges.... I struggle with this one. I was involved in health care for many years prior to being elected a member of Parliament. I can remember for years and years we sat around and navel-gazed about the impact of the demographic challenge on our health care and our health care facilities. I was in many meetings, over time. I think we pontificated a lot about what it was going to mean.
Before the committee last year you spoke at length about the demographic and long-term fiscal challenges facing Canada. I'll just quote what you told us in 2011:
...Canada's major fiscal challenge is long term, not short term. Canada's serious fiscal challenge is underscored by aging demographics and weak productivity growth. Our population is getting older. In 1971 there were 7.8 people at working age for every person over 65, which fell to 5.1 in 2008. And it is projected to be 3.8 in 2019 and 2.5 in 2033. Growth in labour supply will fall dramatically due to slower population growth and the retirement of the baby boom generation.
Those were your comments.
And now I look at what you're saying today. Specifically, you indicated that OAS changes are not necessary. You said to the media, when you were talking about the need to make OAS more sustainable,
...there’s no reason to change from a fiscal sustainability perspective....There may be other reasons to change retirement ages that have to do with broader policy discussions, but that goes beyond fiscal sustainability.
Everyone talks about the challenges. Obviously the government does not want to do things they don't have to do in this area. As soon as someone takes a measure it's really, “Oh my goodness, someone is dealing with this issue”. So as an economist, are you honestly saying that you know the labour supply will fall dramatically due to the slower population...? Will there be no cost pressures whatsoever for this program?