Evidence of meeting #61 for Finance in the 41st Parliament, 1st Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was transfer.

A recording is available from Parliament.

On the agenda

MPs speaking

Also speaking

Glenn Campbell  Director, International Policy and Analysis Division , Department of Finance
Gilles Moreau  Director General, National Compensation, Royal Canadian Mounted Police, Department of Public Safety
Jonathan Roy  Senior Policy Analyst, Social Policy, Health, Justice, Culture, Department of Finance
Daniel MacDonald  Chief, Federal-Provincial Relations Division, CHT/CST and Northern Policy, Department of Finance
John Davies  Director General, National Security Policy, Department of Public Safety
Darryl Hirsch  Senior Policy Analyst, Intelligence Policy and Coordination, Department of Public Safety
Nigel Harrison  Manager, Legislative and Parliamentary Affairs, Department of Fisheries and Oceans
David Gillis  Director General, Ecosystems and Oceans Science Sector, Department of Fisheries and Oceans
David Lee  Director, Office of Legislative and Regulatory Modernization; Policy, Planning and International Affairs Directorate, Health Products and Food Branch, Department of Health
Samuel Godefroy  Director General, Food Directorate, Health Products and Food Branch, Department of Health
Alwyn Child  Director General, Program Development and Guidance Directorate, Department of Human Resources and Skills Development
Annette Nicholson  Secretary and General Counsel, International Development Research Centre (IDRC)
Lenore Duff  Senior Director, Strategic Policy and Legislative Reform, Department of Human Resources and Skills Development
Dominique La Salle  Director General, Seniors and Pensions Policy Secretariat, Department of Human Resources and Skills Development
Nathalie Martel  Director, Old Age Security Policy, Department of Human Resources and Skills Development
Bruno Rodrigue  Chief, Social policy, Income Security, Department of Finance
Annette Vermaeten  Director, Task Force, Special Projects, Department of Human Resources and Skills Development
Eileen Boyd  Assistant Secretary to the Cabinet, Senior Personnel, Privy Council Office
Neil Bouwer  Vice-President, Policy and Programs, Canadian Food Inspection Agency
Lynn Tassé  Director, Canada Gazette, Department of Public Works and Government Services
Gerard Peets  Senior Director, Strategy and Planning Directorate, Department of Industry
Patricia Brady  Director, Investment, Insolvency, Competition and Corporate Policy Directorate, Department of Industry
Andy Lalonde  Manager, Preclearance, Canada Border Services Agency, Department of Public Safety
Lynn Hemmings  Senior Chief, Payments, Payments and Pensions, Financial Sector Policy Branch, Department of Finance

7:40 p.m.

Director General, Seniors and Pensions Policy Secretariat, Department of Human Resources and Skills Development

Dominique La Salle

Yes, it goes further than that.

7:40 p.m.

NDP

Guy Caron NDP Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques, QC

According to the chief actuary, the program costs based on GDP will decline after 2030. We will have achieved—

7:40 p.m.

Director General, Seniors and Pensions Policy Secretariat, Department of Human Resources and Skills Development

Dominique La Salle

It goes further than that. We won't be there.

7:40 p.m.

NDP

Guy Caron NDP Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques, QC

Starting in 2030, it's—

7:40 p.m.

Director General, Seniors and Pensions Policy Secretariat, Department of Human Resources and Skills Development

Dominique La Salle

Yes, we'll all be there.

7:40 p.m.

Director, Task Force, Special Projects, Department of Human Resources and Skills Development

Annette Vermaeten

It reaches its peak in 20—

7:40 p.m.

NDP

Guy Caron NDP Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques, QC

And subsequently?

7:40 p.m.

Director, Task Force, Special Projects, Department of Human Resources and Skills Development

Annette Vermaeten

It reaches its peak and then it slowly decreases.

7:40 p.m.

NDP

Guy Caron NDP Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques, QC

Thank you.

The other question I want to ask is related to that. Using the calculation method that our colleagues opposite have used, that is to say the number of workers per person receiving Old Age Security, we may suppose that the number of workers will be lower in 2030. I'm not saying we'll eventually have to do nothing to adjust, but if we do nothing, based on that same figure, the number of workers will begin to rise relative to the number of people receiving Old Age Security, will it not?

7:40 p.m.

Director General, Seniors and Pensions Policy Secretariat, Department of Human Resources and Skills Development

Dominique La Salle

I'm not sure I follow you.

7:40 p.m.

NDP

Guy Caron NDP Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques, QC

The figure cited is that there are currently four workers supporting one person.

7:40 p.m.

Director General, Seniors and Pensions Policy Secretariat, Department of Human Resources and Skills Development

Dominique La Salle

By worker, we mean a Canadian of working age.

7:40 p.m.

NDP

Guy Caron NDP Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques, QC

Perfect. And that figure will fall to two in 2030.

7:40 p.m.

Director General, Seniors and Pensions Policy Secretariat, Department of Human Resources and Skills Development

Dominique La Salle

That's correct.

7:40 p.m.

NDP

Guy Caron NDP Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques, QC

At the peak of demographic pressure.

May 17th, 2012 / 7:40 p.m.

Director, Task Force, Special Projects, Department of Human Resources and Skills Development

Annette Vermaeten

That's correct.

7:40 p.m.

NDP

Guy Caron NDP Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques, QC

What would that figure be after 2030?

7:40 p.m.

Director, Task Force, Special Projects, Department of Human Resources and Skills Development

Annette Vermaeten

The dependency rate remains at about two working-age Canadians per senior. The statistics I have in front of me indicate until at least 2050...and I don't have any information beyond that. But it stays steady at two working-age Canadians per senior.

7:40 p.m.

NDP

Guy Caron NDP Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques, QC

So program costs based on GDP would decline after 2030, but the number of workers supporting people receiving Old Age Security would not change.

7:40 p.m.

Director, Task Force, Special Projects, Department of Human Resources and Skills Development

Annette Vermaeten

The percentage of GDP spent on the program starts to decrease slowly, and it reaches about the same level as it is today at around 2060.

7:40 p.m.

NDP

Guy Caron NDP Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques, QC

In 2060, yes.

However, the number of workers supporting those receiving Old Age Security would not change, even if program costs relative to GDP fell. I find it hard to understand.

7:40 p.m.

Director General, Seniors and Pensions Policy Secretariat, Department of Human Resources and Skills Development

Dominique La Salle

And I'm not following you. I apologize.

7:40 p.m.

NDP

Guy Caron NDP Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques, QC

There are currently two measures. The first is the number of workers supporting one person who is receiving Old Age Security. We won't go into the details; we are going to discuss this in general terms. The figure is currently four to one, and it will fall to two to one. What you're telling me is that this figure will remain at two to one until 2060.

7:40 p.m.

Director General, Seniors and Pensions Policy Secretariat, Department of Human Resources and Skills Development

Dominique La Salle

That's correct.

7:40 p.m.

NDP

Guy Caron NDP Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques, QC

We have another measure, program costs based on GDP. Those costs will peak as a result of demographic pressure and subsequently decline. Consequently, program costs will rise by approximately 0.5% or 1% of GDP until 2030. After that, those costs will decline as a percentage of our capacity to pay.