Yes, it goes further than that.
Evidence of meeting #61 for Finance in the 41st Parliament, 1st Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was transfer.
A recording is available from Parliament.
Evidence of meeting #61 for Finance in the 41st Parliament, 1st Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was transfer.
A recording is available from Parliament.
Director General, Seniors and Pensions Policy Secretariat, Department of Human Resources and Skills Development
Yes, it goes further than that.
NDP
Guy Caron NDP Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques, QC
According to the chief actuary, the program costs based on GDP will decline after 2030. We will have achieved—
Director General, Seniors and Pensions Policy Secretariat, Department of Human Resources and Skills Development
It goes further than that. We won't be there.
Director General, Seniors and Pensions Policy Secretariat, Department of Human Resources and Skills Development
Yes, we'll all be there.
Director, Task Force, Special Projects, Department of Human Resources and Skills Development
It reaches its peak in 20—
Director, Task Force, Special Projects, Department of Human Resources and Skills Development
It reaches its peak and then it slowly decreases.
NDP
Guy Caron NDP Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques, QC
Thank you.
The other question I want to ask is related to that. Using the calculation method that our colleagues opposite have used, that is to say the number of workers per person receiving Old Age Security, we may suppose that the number of workers will be lower in 2030. I'm not saying we'll eventually have to do nothing to adjust, but if we do nothing, based on that same figure, the number of workers will begin to rise relative to the number of people receiving Old Age Security, will it not?
Director General, Seniors and Pensions Policy Secretariat, Department of Human Resources and Skills Development
I'm not sure I follow you.
NDP
Guy Caron NDP Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques, QC
The figure cited is that there are currently four workers supporting one person.
Director General, Seniors and Pensions Policy Secretariat, Department of Human Resources and Skills Development
By worker, we mean a Canadian of working age.
NDP
Guy Caron NDP Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques, QC
Perfect. And that figure will fall to two in 2030.
Director General, Seniors and Pensions Policy Secretariat, Department of Human Resources and Skills Development
That's correct.
NDP
Director, Task Force, Special Projects, Department of Human Resources and Skills Development
That's correct.
NDP
Director, Task Force, Special Projects, Department of Human Resources and Skills Development
The dependency rate remains at about two working-age Canadians per senior. The statistics I have in front of me indicate until at least 2050...and I don't have any information beyond that. But it stays steady at two working-age Canadians per senior.
NDP
Guy Caron NDP Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques, QC
So program costs based on GDP would decline after 2030, but the number of workers supporting people receiving Old Age Security would not change.
Director, Task Force, Special Projects, Department of Human Resources and Skills Development
The percentage of GDP spent on the program starts to decrease slowly, and it reaches about the same level as it is today at around 2060.
NDP
Guy Caron NDP Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques, QC
In 2060, yes.
However, the number of workers supporting those receiving Old Age Security would not change, even if program costs relative to GDP fell. I find it hard to understand.
Director General, Seniors and Pensions Policy Secretariat, Department of Human Resources and Skills Development
And I'm not following you. I apologize.
Guy Caron NDP Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques, QC
There are currently two measures. The first is the number of workers supporting one person who is receiving Old Age Security. We won't go into the details; we are going to discuss this in general terms. The figure is currently four to one, and it will fall to two to one. What you're telling me is that this figure will remain at two to one until 2060.
Director General, Seniors and Pensions Policy Secretariat, Department of Human Resources and Skills Development
That's correct.
NDP
Guy Caron NDP Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques, QC
We have another measure, program costs based on GDP. Those costs will peak as a result of demographic pressure and subsequently decline. Consequently, program costs will rise by approximately 0.5% or 1% of GDP until 2030. After that, those costs will decline as a percentage of our capacity to pay.