That reference to private demand is an economist's euphemism. It was first called animal spirits by our old economist Keynes.
What we know is that there's always this unexplained layer of macro decision-making in an economy. It's a bit like a herd effect: everybody is optimistic, so everybody gets optimistic. You tend to get this extra kick to the economy. It's exactly when that happens that the economists all underpredict what's going to happen next. Of course, the reverse has been true for the last three or four years, because animal spirits, such as they exist, have been absolutely crushed by this experience that we've been through.
Our belief is that while many of our models are overpredicting what has been actually happening, at some point those animal spirits will come alive and we'll get that unified upturn. U.S. investment is the place where you might expect to see that first, because they've been hit so hard and they've been waiting this long, and all the ingredients are lined up. It's why that risk is highlighted in our monetary policy report. That's the one area where historically we've underpredicted at this point in the business cycle.