You're absolutely right, and you premise it well. If it weren't for these low interest rates and the policy response back in 2008, we could be in the second great depression right now.
People should bear that in mind when they ask why interest rates aren't up where they need them to be. The answer is that the headwinds remain significant and we're still pushing against them in order to create what we do see. Obviously the U.S. economy is not in equilibrium even though it's growing at perhaps 3% and interest rates are zero. It's mostly induced growth, not natural, so we have to wait for that to happen.
Where we're going to end up is a question of what we call the neutral rate of interest. Carolyn did an important piece on that and gave a speech on that, so I'd like her to elaborate.