Just to go back to the first premise, first of all, we don't believe we're in a bubble. There are many other characteristics of a bubble situation that are not present: highly speculative behaviour, people buying multiple houses just because they can sell them later, and that sort of thing. We have in fact been building houses very much in line with demographic demand in Canada, so there's no excess, if you like. Those are important things to bear in mind.
Our modelling, which is based on not just Canada but on something like 40 or 50 housing events globally, did suggest that the extent of overvaluation was around 20%. The “around” is a very important word, because statistically it says it could be as low as 10% or it could be even higher than 20%. That's a statistician's way of describing a range of possibilities. What this means is that our modelling is reasonably consistent with all of these different statements that are taken much less cautiously, if you like.
It would be unusual for us to have a cycle like we've had where housing did most of the work of keeping us out of recession. People buying houses sooner in their lifetimes because of lower interest rates is why we did not have a recession, plus the oil sector. Those are the two things that were really keeping us going. So it would be very unusual to come through all that and not have a degree of overvaluation; one has that in every business cycle like this.
When we talk about “a soft landing”, it's not necessarily the case that it's prices that do the adjusting, because the economy is below where we expect it to be, it's going to converge on its capacity and create a lot more jobs over these two years. What that does is it boosts the things that go into that model—incomes in particular—that make the housing market more sustainable from beneath. That's an important and complicated set of dynamics. It's in that environment that we look at the data and we say that macro-wise we feel that all those ingredients are coming together about as expected. It's later than we expected, but it's happening, so we're comfortable.