Well, the evidence we have at present would be primarily in the export sector. We also know that consumers, those with flexible rate mortgages, have already lower payments. This is important as a buffer to the oil price shock. Those who are renewing, who don't have variable rates—that block of people are already getting the benefit of lower mortgage payments.
We know that companies with existing export contracts receive a substantial boost in their cashflow immediately when the currency moves as it did. That would be not only in the non-energy export sector but in all export sectors. In the case of oil, it provides a partial offset to lower oil prices, but in other sectors where prices have been stable, it's an enormous effect on their cashflow, and then, of course, positions them for more competitive offerings in the next cycle of contracting.
The evidence we have is thin at this stage. It's an accumulation of fundamentals that we believe are there, and as we say in the monetary policy report, our biggest risk is that somebody surprises us. For example, consumers spent less in the first quarter—we believe because of bad weather. However, if it turns out that they've changed their minds about something, then that's something that would carry on longer. That's a risk.
In the case of companies, companies tell us in the non-energy export sector they're ready to invest. They need a little more time perhaps, or they need a little more assurance, and I think the numbers are proving that.
No one is claiming that we know exactly what's happening in the first quarter or the second. That's our job to continue to monitor all those things.