We made quite a bit of modelling changes to make sure we could capture the main channels. The intuition behind why interest rates have a stronger impact when we're highly debted is pretty clear. If you have a $500,000 mortgage, 25 basis points is about $60 a month, and that's going to be taken out of the money that you have to spend on other things. All else being equal, consumption is going to go down a bit, or be less strong than it was. If you had $100,000 mortgage, that would be $12. It makes a really big difference.
It may be that it affects people differently over time, depending on whether they have a variable rate mortgage or a fixed rate mortgage, but eventually that transmission gets through the system. In general, it's six to 18 months, a 24-month process, and it flows, not only through consumption but also through the price of houses, because again, if you're spending more of your income on something else, like interest rate payments, maybe you're not as inclined to buy a bigger house than you were. Maybe other people need to wait longer to buy a house, so all these channels come together to mean that, when people are more highly indebted, it's going to have a larger impact.
With our new model, we are more confident than we were in the past that we've been able to capture those effects.