Picking up from where MP Fergus left off, I certainly do appreciate that. It's helpful to have competing models side by side, and then find out from Stats Canada, after the relevant data has been accumulated and we can look at it, who's closer. Certainly, I think it's good to have a variety of models, because we shouldn't just be thinking one particular way.
In regard to that, there's been a lot of discussion in the last few years about balanced budgets. Obviously, the Conservatives favour them; other parties have various views. In the report you estimate that the probability of the budget being in a balance or a surplus position in 2017, 2018, or 2019-20 is effectively nil. I appreciate that you've modelled that.
You've also talked on page 25 about the net debt-to-GDP ratio and where that might go in several years. These are the two most common references when we talk about the fiscal framework, and I understand why, because you have to start with something, and it's easy to count numbers.
What other metrics should parliamentarians be looking at? For example, that net debt-to-GDP ratio may tell one story, but again, as we know, we have a long-term demographic issue that may skew the effects in certain areas, where certain provinces are far more exposed than others. Where should we be looking to, as Wayne Gretzky used to say about the direction of a puck?