As you know, the inflation rate tends to be very variable. It's influenced by many short-term things. We're always looking for a better way to filter out those variations, especially since, as a policy-maker, I know that we can only affect inflation 18 months to two years from now. It's our forecast of where it will be two years from now that determines whether or not we need to do something now. We have to see through all the noise and the data, so we created some core measures, which were intended to strip out the noise, and we published them and said we're going to follow them, and they promptly fell well below two per cent and, of course, gave rise to concern that maybe our modelling was off.
So we did a lot of extra modelling over the past 18 months or so, and sure enough, as expected, those measures have converged very close to two per cent over the last six to eight months. That has confirmed for us that we have the right models and the right framework. That means our forecast for inflation, which two years from now is two per cent—exactly on target, or within 0.1 per cent of target—is well within the range of one per cent to three per cent. This means, given what our outlook is, that we have monetary conditions roughly where they should be. In that context, the fact that inflation is rising above two per cent for now is due to temporary factors, and we can see through them. We explain that to people so they can keep their expectations firmly at two per cent, and the economy should continue to run nicely on that.