I'll respond quickly. I think it is helpful to look back. There have been significant revisions to oil prices and commodity prices since the late 2014 period. Now we are at a level where it is unlikely that we are going to see the same kind of downward revisions. I don't think the price of oil can go negative. We are around $40 right now.
Subtracting that $40 billion from nominal GDP is, in some ways, almost like thinking that oil is going to keep falling to minimal price levels. It is a possibility. It could be a tail risk, but again, tail risks have very small probabilities attached to them.