Thank you.
We do not really know why the Department of Finance decided on an adjustment of $40 billion. That said, governments have used private sector forecasts for 20 years to give fiscal forecasting an element of independence.
However, when the adjustment is very large, this element of independence disappears completely. Moreover, when we change a significant variable, such as the nominal GDP, the other variables from private sector forecasts become inconsistent with the level of GDP. In short, such forecasts are problematic.