Many of the things you mention are important factors in this analysis. I think we've been very clear that this analysis has a certain amount of uncertainty associated with it. As you mentioned, that is why we chose to highlight one of the risks, which is that people may save more than the average through history.
We saw an experiment that was similar to that a year ago. When the UCCB changes went into place we began with an assumption, which is really what it is, that perhaps around half of that money would end up being spent and the other half might be saved, in the context we found ourselves. That turned out to be not too far off the mark, so when we put this in we don't assume everyone spends all of the money. This is a multiplier that is less than one, which is, some of the money is inevitably saved, and it would depend on house to house, and as we say, it would depend through time. It is not just right away. In the beginning, people may be more cautious than they are longer term.
Therefore, yes, there is uncertainty there, but our monetary policy doesn't require that we have our forecast exact. It is about what the boundaries are and what the risks are around our forecast so that our monetary policy is appropriate for a range of possible outcomes.