Okay.
I do not dismiss the possibility that there could be this effect on other income tax brackets that would have raised some additional revenue that isn't in the usual calculation, but I do not think that approach yet has sufficient support to use for current tax policy.
My second point is also in support of the Department of Finance and the PBO estimates of the revenue effect on the income taxes for the $45,000 to $91,000 bracket increase. I think those estimates are also solid.
Finally, I will get to my third point, which pertains to TFSAs.
As an aside, if you know anyone who is 64 with a low enough income to be on the guaranteed income supplement, when they turn age 65, please tell them not to make an RRSP contribution but to use TFSAs. The RRSP contribution will likely have a strong negative return, because it will be subject to the guaranteed income supplement clawback. In fact, if they take their money in out the next year, it's pretty much sure that they will lose half their money, or perhaps even more in some cases. It's a terrible investment in that case.
So there is a good thing about TFSAs, but the flip side of this is that it's also a serious policy problem. There are many ways to put it, but if you think about a $10,000 limit—if that limit were to stay—there will likely be a significant number of individuals who would be reaching the age of 65 with perhaps half a million dollars or a million dollars or more in assets but who would still be eligible for the full guaranteed income supplement, a program that is intended to help poor seniors.
So more generally, TFSAs have this time bomb aspect. The problems they can create will get worse and worse over time, with the revenue impact almost 10 times greater as a fraction of GDP in 2050 as compared to now. Their effects will get worse. My own view is that the TFSA problem needs to be slowed down while there is a reform that better integrates the taxation of returns to saving and to the pension system, because if we expect Canadians to plan 20, 30, or 40 years ahead, we need the government to do it too.
Thank you very much.