At this time, our downgraded outlook is due to two main factors. Firstly, we have observed a sharp rebound in exports since the decline. However, during this recovery period, exports did not increase as much as our models had predicted. It is a gradual process and the margin of error keeps widening. We have been monitoring this situation closely for two years, so it is not new to us.
Over the past year, we did other research, and for different reasons, downgraded our forecast for exports. On the one hand, it is clear that global trade is weak. All countries are experiencing a decline in exports relative to GDP. On the other hand, the American economy was very weak during this year's first trimester, which led to composition changes in U.S. demand. To give you an example, new houses are smaller than usual. This is probably a demographic trend, but it has reduced Canadian exports of goods such as construction materials. Investment is also a very important category for our exports. All of these factors have caused the current decline in our exports.
In addition, the government's recent announcements regarding mortgages led to a slight drop in housing sales. There is a lot of uncertainty around that forecast, and we will have to follow the situation closely to see the results.