Evidence of meeting #67 for Finance in the 42nd Parliament, 1st Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was mortgages.

A video is available from Parliament.

On the agenda

MPs speaking

Also speaking

Sylvain Leduc  Deputy Governor, Bank of Canada
Michel Tremblay  Senior Vice-President, Policy, Research and Public Affairs, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
Carolyn Rogers  Assistant Superintendent, Regulation Sector, Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions
Michel Laurence  Vice-President, Housing Markets and Indicators, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
Don Coletti  Advisor to the Governor, Bank of Canada
Alex Ciappara  Director, Credit Market and Economic Policy, Canadian Bankers Association
Jeff Morrison  Executive Director, Canadian Housing and Renewal Association
Christopher White  Vice-President, Government Relations, Canadian Credit Union Association
Stuart Levings  President and Chief Executive Officer, Genworth Canada
Robert Martin  Senior Policy Adviser, Canadian Credit Union Association
Robert Hogue  Senior Economist, Royal Bank of Canada
Winsor Macdonell  Second Vice-President and General Counsel, Genworth Canada

5:15 p.m.

Liberal

The Chair Liberal Wayne Easter

Could I get in on that for a second, Francesco?

Mr. Caron asked a question earlier that suggested a potential decline in the housing market or housing construction in Quebec as a result of these decisions.

I know a lot of your work concerns the stability of the financial markets, debt loads, and so on, but do we have anywhere to turn to and get concrete information on how these decisions impact the home construction industry? The home construction industry is an important economic factor.

Second, a question that's been rolling around in my mind is that a lot of these decisions relate to the insured mortgage industry. What's the impact of these decisions in the uninsured mortgage industry and the ability of people who have to go to that market in order to finance a home?

Does anybody have any response to either of those?

5:15 p.m.

Deputy Governor, Bank of Canada

Sylvain Leduc

I think in terms of the first one, the impact on construction activities and so on, one thing we had looked at was the impact of different measures such as the increase in the amount of cash you have put down on a house. We look at these different measures and we look at what resale activity would do around the implementation period, whether it had gone down and by how much, to sort of try to get an average. It's difficult to test very specifically for those measures, just because we don't have a whole lot of data. Then we do it case by case, and take a case-study approach looking at resale activity after the implementation of certain measures or residential investment and so on, so we can get at least a sense of magnitude. Our estimate is in part informed by those types of analyses.

5:15 p.m.

Liberal

The Chair Liberal Wayne Easter

What about the insured and uninsured markets?

5:15 p.m.

Deputy Governor, Bank of Canada

Sylvain Leduc

This is a concern that we have, that consumers might migrate towards the uninsured market because of those measures. This is definitely something we're really keeping a close eye on.

5:15 p.m.

Liberal

The Chair Liberal Wayne Easter

Have you detected anything to date? You're keeping a close eye on it.

5:15 p.m.

Deputy Governor, Bank of Canada

Sylvain Leduc

Not quite. For instance, if you think about co-lending, there have been some stories about the fact that you can get a loan from a non federally regulated institution. The problem with that is that we have data from the second quarter of 2016, but we don't have.... We know that these are very small. They may be rising, but we don't have the data. So, we have a big lag between today and the data. That's why I'm saying we're keeping an eye on this.

5:15 p.m.

Liberal

The Chair Liberal Wayne Easter

Okay. Thank you.

Mr. Sorbara, do you have another question before I cut you off?

5:15 p.m.

Liberal

Francesco Sorbara Liberal Vaughan—Woodbridge, ON

I have just a quick one, or more of a comment, to OSFI specifically. I'm very happy with the work that's been done with regard to B-20 and the superintendent's speech. Going back to the comment of my colleague Mr. Grewal about employment verification and collateral, OSFI took a regional approach to putting that out. It wasn't a broad-based approach. It was a regional approach in terms of the capital requirements and so forth. I read through the papers. I do want to applaud them, not that the other institutions have done anything different, but on that level, I was actually happy to see that, because I think if there is an issue, it may come from that side in terms of employment verification, income verification, and collateral verification.

5:20 p.m.

Liberal

The Chair Liberal Wayne Easter

Okay.

We'll go to Mr. Albas for the last round of questions.

5:20 p.m.

Conservative

Dan Albas Conservative Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola, BC

Thank you, Mr. Chair. We have so much brain power here that I was a little bit disappointed that we didn't know that if you talk to any realtor, they are forced to disclose any transaction of over $10,000 in cash, and that FINTRAC is the one that tracks all of that. If some members are concerned about that area, perhaps we should ask FINTRAC to see what they do with the data. Now, obviously they are doing it with the lens more towards organized crime or terrorism, but whether or not that information is being referred to different decision-makers, I don't know. It would be interesting to find that out.

You had an interesting comment, sir, about co-lending. You said specifically that you're not always tracking whether or not someone has been given money so they can put a down payment down and where that would come from. Am I paraphrasing you correctly?

5:20 p.m.

Deputy Governor, Bank of Canada

Sylvain Leduc

Just the idea that you would get another loan to finance your down payment.

5:20 p.m.

Conservative

Dan Albas Conservative Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola, BC

Oh, yes, okay. Pardon me. Thank you for sharing that.

My home province, British Columbia, has announced a new policy for first-time homebuyers. Are you tracking when these loans made by the Province of British Columbia are made to first-time homebuyers as part of your modelling?

5:20 p.m.

Deputy Governor, Bank of Canada

Sylvain Leduc

Again, I think what we've said on this is that there are many features keeping house prices up. One worry that we have, a bit like CMHC's, is that by extending those loans they might feed into higher house prices. It's not clear that it's really benefiting the people we're trying to get into the market. We just have to make sure they don't get ahead of themselves. We want the quality of mortgages to—

5:20 p.m.

Conservative

Dan Albas Conservative Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola, BC

When the province decides to put in a foreign-buyers' tax that technically gives the power to the City of Vancouver through their charter to be able to charge a foreign national, and then suddenly the Department of Finance or the minister puts down these new rules and could perhaps, as some people thought, cause a huge shock to that area, is that not getting ahead of ourselves? But I digress.

There was some discussion earlier, Mr. Chair, on concerns about consumer debt. I do know, and I have seen many ads that shock me, of some people buying very expensive vehicles on very extended, long-term payment arrangements. You're concerned about that, but we also have here in Ottawa a government that's adding payroll taxes, carbon taxes, and is making it more difficult for people to be able to get a home from which they can actually save money in the form of equity. We all know our homes are our biggest source of equity.

I find it interesting that you're all concerned about consumer debt and the ability to be able to afford a mortgage. I guess maybe this comes back to your point that you just offer a slice of advice to the person in the chair who makes the decisions. I just find it dumbfounding sometimes that we criticize other levels of government for doing things, and yet we often do these things ourselves.

Anyway, it's been a very useful conversation, at least to me.

I'd like to go back, though, to mortgages. We talked a little about this earlier. I said that I was worried about the competitiveness of the industry, particularly what monoline lenders are suggesting. I'm going to read this and I'd like to hear your comments, ma'am, and perhaps those of anyone else:

The federal government backs 100% of the mortgage insurance obligations of CMHC, a unique approach compared to other nations. A lender risk-sharing program would raise the risk associated with funding mortgage[s] and increase the capital lenders require. Once again, while the banks are sufficiently capitalized to retain loans on their books, smaller lenders are not, and thus would need to increase mortgage lending rates to offset additional risk, thus increasing costs to consumers. Additionally, as monoline lenders, who are unable to raise sufficient capital close their doors or merge with others to remain in the market, there will be less competition among lenders, thus increasing rates and costs for borrowers.... From a consumer perspective, the net effect again would be that housing become[s] less affordable, not more affordable. In our view, this is unnecessary given Canada's low default rate of circa 0.28% and the fact that CMHC has more than enough in reserves to cover outstanding mortgages in the unlikely event of a major rise in defaults.

To me, this seems to say that if we continue this, first of all you're going to have Canadians who cannot refinance. They're going to be shocked to find that out. You're going to see the market becoming far less competitive and overall prices going up. Isn't that the opposite of what we want to see? Can you explain to me the positive side of this policy?

5:25 p.m.

Liberal

The Chair Liberal Wayne Easter

Coming back to your quote, Dan, do you want to give us the source of the quote.

5:25 p.m.

Conservative

Dan Albas Conservative Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola, BC

Yes. Again, sir, it is the submission from Gary Mauris, the president of Dominion Lending Centres. Again, it is a third party. However, I do think it's an excellent point. I'd like to know if we're not just making life tougher for consumers, but also making the market less competitive. To be fair, we have a stable system, but stable does not also mean competitive.

5:25 p.m.

Liberal

The Chair Liberal Wayne Easter

Okay, thank you, Mr. Albas.

I think you're ready to answer, Ms. Rogers.

5:25 p.m.

Assistant Superintendent, Regulation Sector, Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions

Carolyn Rogers

I might have guessed that was the source of the quote. I think in that particular quote, if I caught the first part right, he's talking about a scenario under lender risk sharing? Is that correct?

5:25 p.m.

Conservative

Dan Albas Conservative Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola, BC

Yes.

5:25 p.m.

Assistant Superintendent, Regulation Sector, Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions

Carolyn Rogers

I would start by saying that lender risk sharing is a concept out for consultation right now. What Mr. Mauris is doing is forecasting how a lender risk-sharing program would eventually be priced into the market, and I don't think that's a given at this stage.

5:25 p.m.

Conservative

Dan Albas Conservative Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola, BC

Okay, but is that not...? We did touch upon it in my earlier intervention, the fact that people are not going to be able to refinance and that will also cause a similar increase.

5:25 p.m.

Assistant Superintendent, Regulation Sector, Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions

Carolyn Rogers

Yes, and I don't agree with that. I'm happy to have an offline conversation to understand how he's connecting the ability to refinance with the recent policy changes, because I'm missing how he's making that connection.

But with respect to lender risk sharing, which I understand is his underlying—

5:25 p.m.

Conservative

Dan Albas Conservative Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola, BC

Okay, maybe we shouldn't go there, but I'd like for us just to elaborate a bit more on the original conversation. People are going to be shocked to find out they can't go to their same mortgage broker to get refinancing from the same lender at a particular juncture. That will encourage them to go to a traditional lender, because they have the capital to be able to meet these rules.

5:25 p.m.

Liberal

The Chair Liberal Wayne Easter

We'll give you a minute, Ms. Rogers, to answer the question, because we're going to have to end it at that, unless somebody else wants to ask a supplementary to Ms. Rogers.

Go ahead.

5:25 p.m.

Assistant Superintendent, Regulation Sector, Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions

Carolyn Rogers

Pricing decisions belong to the lender. We don't set prices. We set capital requirements, and if lenders and insurers choose to pass the capital requirements on to consumers in the form of higher prices, that's a business decision and not a regulatory decision.

I think Mr. Mauris is making a series of assumptions about how risk sharing or business models or other business decisions are going to change as a result of these decisions, then forecasting price increases, and then forecasting bad things as a result of those price increases.

I would say lender risk sharing, as it's contemplated in the current consultation paper, talks about moving risk between the mortgage insurer and the lender. Logically the capital requirements would then move down for the insurer and up for the lender. As to whether they would all then move to the consumer, I would be surprised if it gets fully downloaded to the consumer. The insurer would hold less capital. The lender would hold more capital. The insurance premium would be reflected downward to consumers. The interest rate or the pricing to lender may be reflected upwards. We don't know that though. That's the purpose of the consultation, to think these things through.