For us at the Bank of Canada, forecasting the price of oil is a challenge. As a result, we base our forecasts on a stable price. Then we analyze the other risks.
For the moment, I would say that there is a short-term upside risk because we are going through a period of very low investment in the sector. Sooner or later, demand will exceed supply.
In addition, technological changes alter the supply curve in a very unpredictable way. So I do not really know what the future holds. I am pleased to see the industry becoming more stable, and assuming stability.