That's an excellent question.
Statistics Canada gave that very preliminary figure for the first quarter. The figure is -2.6%. In comparison, our scenario anticipates that the contraction for the first quarter will be between 1% and 3%. This is exactly along the same lines. It's a comparable trajectory.
In terms of the second quarter, the most significant quarter, we can envision a fairly positive scenario of -15% compared to the fourth quarter. The worst-case scenario is about -30%. The reality will probably be somewhere in between. It will depend on when the economy starts to recover. If we start again in May or even in early June, the economy will likely recover in stages. This is a positive or optimistic scenario that would start in the second quarter. However, the third quarter is really a quarter for commitment.
In our view, this positive scenario is a possibility. However, it will depend on the severity of the situation. At what point can we lift the restrictions imposed on the public? We don't know, as the Prime Minister said yesterday. However, I think that this positive scenario would be possible.
The bleak scenario is really bleak in comparison. Bankruptcies and job losses in the longer term, among other things, will affect trust. On the other hand, if trust is maintained, the recovery will be more robust in the third and fourth quarters.