It's a very important question.
If you look at our own projection, which we laid out a couple of weeks ago in our monetary policy report, what you see is that growth is moderating. Growth needs to moderate to bring demand in line with the economy supply capacity. That moderating growth is pretty solid growth: 3¼% next year and 2¼% the year after. And if you look at most private sector forecasts, they're broadly similar. They have inflation declining, with growth continuing at a more moderate pace.
I do want to underline, though, that getting this soft landing is not going to be easy. There is a delicate balance here. There are some good reasons to believe we can continue to grow while bringing inflation down. The two most important ones are, first, much of the inflation we have now comes from beyond our borders. We've seen increases in commodity prices and global supply chain disruptions. If oil prices stop going up and begin coming down—even just stop going up—and these global supply chain pressures begin to abate, we should see some natural reduction in inflation, provided we keep inflation expectations well anchored.
Let me underline that last point, which is critical. If we don't keep inflation expectations well anchored, inflation will get stuck at a higher level. So we need to do that, and that is reflected in our actions.
The second reason why you can have growth with declining inflation is that demand is running the house. We can see this in the labour market, where we have a very high level of vacancies. We have very strong employment, but we have a lot of vacancies. If we can moderate demand, we can reduce those vacancies, maintain high levels of employment, bring the economy back into balance and bring inflation back on target.