You're right. Our target is for total CPI inflation.... Total CPI inflation has been pretty close to 2%. It did go up a bit in September, to 2.4%. However, you're right, our preferred measures of core are about 3%. When we look at a broad range of inflation indicators, we think underlying inflation is about 2.5%, so yes, that is a bit of a concern.
Our concern level, though, has been coming down. If you look at three-month rates of core inflation, which is a little more timely than looking at the year over year, what you see is that, in the first quarter, they were running about 3.5%. They are now under 3%. Some of that upward pressure we saw on underlying inflation is dissipating.
We need to see it come down further, and that is built into the forecast that we published. If that doesn't happen, if instead of.... We have core inflation coming down to total around 2%, but if inflation was to actually move up to 3% where our core is, we would be off our forecast. That would get our attention. That's the sort of thing we would respond to.
