Evidence of meeting #28 for Fisheries and Oceans in the 44th Parliament, 1st Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was seals.
A recording is available from Parliament.
Conservative
Rick Perkins Conservative South Shore—St. Margarets, NS
Thank you.
On another subject, I've spoken quite a bit during this study about the decision on mackerel. Mackerel is obviously a transboundary stock with the United States. You have had a lot of experience in international discussions and negotiations of issues on behalf of Canada and DFO. Are you aware of whether or not Canada works jointly with the United States on science on the mackerel stocks?
Senior Fisheries Manager, Department of Fisheries and Oceans (Retired), As an Individual
No, we're not, and that's one of the questions. The fishing industry itself is cross border in terms of the contacts and information flow. Both the U.S. and the Canadian industries are not aware of any contact between DFO science and NMFS science.
Conservative
Rick Perkins Conservative South Shore—St. Margarets, NS
I think I have a little more time left.
On that issue, analysis by my office is that the department uses spawning biomass surveys to determine the biomass of the Atlantic mackerel stocks. On average, over the last 10 years, the department's been doing the science when the water is 8 degrees, when mackerel spawn at 10 degrees to 13 degrees.
In your view and experience, what would the result of that kind of science be?
Senior Fisheries Manager, Department of Fisheries and Oceans (Retired), As an Individual
What it suggests is that it needs broader input into the science assessment. Temperature and egg stock status reference is one. However, years ago and perhaps over a decade ago, we had scientists come along the coasts of both Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, working with the fishing industry, doing measurements and expanding the database for the assessment of mackerel.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Ken McDonald
Thank you, Mr. Perkins.
We'll now go to Mr. Hardie for six minutes or less, please.
Liberal
Ken Hardie Liberal Fleetwood—Port Kells, BC
Thank you, Mr. Chair, and thank you, all, for being here.
There's a thread that's developed through your various testimony and I'm going to try to link it—a string of pearls kind of thing, a Glenn Miller kind of thing. Christopher Jones might remember that.
Mr. Jones, Christopher, was there a time when science was done externally from the DFO?
Senior Fisheries Manager, Department of Fisheries and Oceans (Retired), As an Individual
It was. I would say, to respond to your question, there were combinations of DFO science and external science. What I mean by that is there were regional science bodies such as NAFO involved, and DFO science reached out to science both in ICES in the eastern Atlantic and with NAFO scientists to collaborate on assessment modelling and methodologies.
Liberal
Ken Hardie Liberal Fleetwood—Port Kells, BC
One of the things we've noticed is that inevitably science doesn't give us definitive answers and definitive advice. In fact, what it does is that somebody makes a decision and they say it's based on science, and that then promotes conflicts, invalidation, duelling science, etc. Is there a mechanism to work through these conflicts in an objective way to come up with something on which everybody can nod and say, okay, it is what it is?
Senior Fisheries Manager, Department of Fisheries and Oceans (Retired), As an Individual
It depends on the questions often asked of science—
Liberal
Professor, Marine Mammal Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, As an Individual
Sorry, could you rephrase the question.
Liberal
Ken Hardie Liberal Fleetwood—Port Kells, BC
We have a decision made. Let's take the Minister of Fisheries and Oceans as an example, who says the decision was made on the basis of science. Inevitably, there will be people who will come forward and disagree with those findings. They'll disagree with the science. They'll try to invalidate the science. Of course, the resulting dust-up then leaves everybody wondering how on earth you can make a decision, especially because science quite often doesn't give you definitive advice.
Therefore, what's the best way through this? Is the CSAS model the best way to go?
Professor, Marine Mammal Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, As an Individual
I think the CSAS model is a good approach. I think where the rubber meets the road is often with the certainty that different scientific studies have. It seems that very few people ever ask, what is your confidence in your result?
Typically, for example, we've got some models that predict that removing seals from the west coast of Canada would increase the abundance of salmon, and many people will rally behind that conclusion without ever asking, how confident are you in those results? The people doing the models and those who are familiar with how they're parameterized would tell you, there's about a 30% to 40% chance that the model is right.
For many people, if you're going to make a big decision like that, you want to have a confidence of over 80%. On the other hand, if what you're putting up and what's at stake is something one might not value, perhaps the life of the seal for example, you can say that 30% to 40% odds are amazing when you look at how much the fishery is worth.
For other people, it's too big a gamble, as one that would take perhaps 30 to 40 years to discover it may have been a failed gamble.
Liberal
Ken Hardie Liberal Fleetwood—Port Kells, BC
Sir, I'll have to intercept you at that point. This is fascinating, and if you have more to add on this particular issue—because we will be spending a lot of time talking about seals—something in writing would be absolutely golden, if you can provide it.
Mr. Hardy, we hear all the comments about seals and salmon, and seals and cod. We see how the cod and salmon stocks are in trouble. If a main source of food is being depleted, why are seal populations increasing?
Fisheries Consultant, As an Individual
It's a very good question.
We haven't really seen a lot of work in relation to seals. Most of the data we studied, as part of the Atlantic seal science task team, was dated. The offshore diet analysis was done prior to the mid-1990s. The inshore sampling, done predominantly in the same locations each year, takes place in the fall and winter months. For studying diet, we wouldn't find things like capelin or cod, because there's no fish inshore in Newfoundland and Labrador at that time.
In relation to populations growing, there were some numbers released last week on the grey seals. According to DFO, the population has slightly declined from the previous census. There is a census taking place this year, 2022, on the harp seal, so I would think that will work its way through DFO. Within a year or two, we should get some indication of the harp seal population.
Liberal
Ken Hardie Liberal Fleetwood—Port Kells, BC
Okay, I'll have to intercept again, at this point. I have zero time left.
I'm sorry. I should have let you finish, Mr. Hardy. We might get back to you.
Thank you.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Ken McDonald
Thank you, Mr. Hardie.
We'll now go to Madame Desbiens for six minutes or less.
Bloc
Caroline Desbiens Bloc Beauport—Côte-de-Beaupré—Île dOrléans—Charlevoix, QC
Thank you, Mr. Chair.
I'm going to address Mr. Hardy.
Earlier, you mentioned the 30th anniversary of the moratorium on the cod fishery. Personally, it's something I'll never forget, since I used to go cod fishing with my father in the St. Lawrence estuary. My father used to tell me that we had to take advantage of eating cod, because we would no longer be able to eat it in 15 or 20 years, that the cod would be gone because of the seal situation.
Today we're all sitting here and thinking about that outcome. I have to say that the pinnipeds are an easy target. Do you honestly believe that we have an overpopulation of seals and that they too are suffering due to that overpopulation?
Fisheries Consultant, As an Individual
I have to apologize. I'm sure the question was quite good, but I did not get the translation, so I don't have the information or knowledge to answer your question.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Ken McDonald
Mr. Hardy, on the bottom of your screen, there should be something you can hit for interpretation. You can pick “floor”, “English” or “French”. If you want to hear everything in English, pick “English”. If you want to hear it in French, pick “French”.
Fisheries Consultant, As an Individual
Okay, I just flicked that, Mr. Chair.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Ken McDonald
I'll let Madame Desbiens start over because of that technical difficulty with the question.
Bloc
Caroline Desbiens Bloc Beauport—Côte-de-Beaupré—Île dOrléans—Charlevoix, QC
Okay.
Can you hear me, Mr. Hardy?
Bloc
Caroline Desbiens Bloc Beauport—Côte-de-Beaupré—Île dOrléans—Charlevoix, QC
Okay.
I'm going to do my little presentation again because I feel it's important.
In 1990, I used to go to sea in the St. Lawrence estuary with my father and we fished for cod. We fished for recreational purposes. My father would tell me to enjoy it because we wouldn't be able to eat cod in 15 or 20 years since the seal hunt was ending.
Seals are an easy target and we put a lot of blame on them. I, for one, also care what happens to them. Do you think the seals are suffering now because of their overpopulation? We hear they have no shoreline anymore and that they have less food than they used to. That's also part of the committee's concern.
Do you believe that their overpopulation is also hurting the seals themselves?