Fisheries Committee on Nov. 4th, 2022

[Dr. Dominique Robert]

This is a difficult question to answer.

We need a good cohort, like the one we had in 1999. If we get a strong recruitment event, the fish that are born this year and will survive the larval stage in large numbers are going to be available for harvesting in four or five years at the earliest. On the other hand, conditions are not conducive to recruitment and have not been for some time.

[Caroline Desbiens, Bloc, Beauport—Côte-de-Beaupré—Île d’Orléans—Charlevoix, QC]

Could it be said that significant action should be taken to address climate change, to help cool waters and improve resources?

[Dr. Dominique Robert]

It is always good to have a management plan that takes climate change into account.

However, in the case of mackerel and similar species, the variation in conditions from year to year is very difficult to predict.

Currently, the climate is tending to warm up, but there will still be years that are colder than others. These colder years will probably favour a better temporal overlap between larvae and their prey. You have to be patient and, above all, you have to leave breeders in the environment. Then, when these conditions are met, there will be sufficient egg-laying to support a large cohort.

[Caroline Desbiens, Bloc, Beauport—Côte-de-Beaupré—Île d’Orléans—Charlevoix, QC]

The measurement of resources and the development of...

[The Chair, Liberal, Ken McDonald]

Thank you, Madame Desbiens. It's right on the mark. Thank you for that.

We will now go to Ms. Barron for six minutes or less.

[Lisa Marie Barron, NDP, Nanaimo—Ladysmith, BC]

Thank you, Chair.

Thank you to the witnesses for being here today.

I want to acknowledge my appreciation for being here today, and how we have an opportunity for open dialogue to hear from those who have concerns about the commercial use of mackerel and its environmental impacts. We can also hear about the concerns of commercial fishers and the long-term sustainability of their industry. I think it's important that we're not pitting one against the other and are instead talking about what the facts are and how we move together to have more sustainable fisheries and oceans.

Ms. Schleit, I appreciated your comments on the economic benefits of rebuilding mackerel and how those rebuilding efforts benefit us all in many ways, including economically. You quoted some of those numbers and the return rate of that investment. These are important things for us to consider.

Could you share a bit more, Ms. Schleit, about the working groups you were talking about, which included industry and indigenous colleagues? What is the extent of those meetings that have been happening over the years?

[Katie Schleit]

I'll mention that I believe it was 2015 when DFO first established a rebuilding plan working group. I believe that group met at least four times a year. Then there are also the advisory committee meetings, which normally happen once a year. Then there are also biannual stock assessments.

All of these meetings have participation from DFO science, a lot of industry members, a few NGO members and some indigenous community members. I know DFO also held special meetings with indigenous communities ahead of advisory committee meetings to further hear and share views.

This was not a difficult time. These tables were large. As I said, we started in person several times a year and then moved to virtual, and there was a sincere effort from all around the table to work on solutions together on things like whether to change the net sizes or some of the seasons.

There were a lot of solutions brought to the table that were further investigated by scientists, etc. Unfortunately, where we always ended up, based on the science advice and thorough scientific analysis, was that a reduction in the TAC was what was going to rebuild the stock.

[Lisa Marie Barron, NDP, Nanaimo—Ladysmith, BC]

Thank you.

My next question is for Dr. Pardo.

Dr. Pardo, thank you so much for outlining some of your thoughts on the reasons we're seeing higher numbers and for some of your suggested potential reasons we're seeing increases in certain areas and for breaking that down for us. I think it's always interesting to hear different perspectives on that.

I'm wondering if you can share with us what you feel would be robust signs of rebuilding of the mackerel.

[Dr. Sebastián Pardo]

Before I go into it, I would like to clarify that the explanations I gave are potential. My point is that we don't know. These things could be happening, but we don't know, and it links to what would be a robust sign of rebuilding.

What we really need to see is the outcome of a stock assessment that shows the abundance of spawning fish above the critical zone, above a certain threshold that's been established by the advisory committee. That would be a sign of rebuilding.

[Lisa Marie Barron, NDP, Nanaimo—Ladysmith, BC]

Thank you for clarifying the points I was trying to clarify.

[Dr. Sebastián Pardo]

We have a lot of evidence from people on the water, and it's very useful and optimistic, but the stock assessment is truly the best tool we have to assess the overall abundance of mackerel in Atlantic Canada and Quebec.

[Lisa Marie Barron, NDP, Nanaimo—Ladysmith, BC]

Thank you.

Perhaps I can ask you, Dr. Pardo, and Ms. Schleit—perhaps first—a two-part question. What would you expect to happen to the stock if it didn't shut down? What would it look like to you when there were signs of a reopening of the mackerel fishery?

[Dr. Sebastián Pardo]

It's hard to say what would happen in the future in a hypothetical scenario, but what we've been seeing over the last years is that if we kept fishing even at these very low rates, we would keep seeing the stock decline further and further, so I would imagine—and it's not far-fetched to imagine—that if we were to reopen the fishery too early, we would see a population that either is not recovering or is getting even lower. That's what I would perhaps expect to see, but you never know.

What was the second part of your question?

[Lisa Marie Barron, NDP, Nanaimo—Ladysmith, BC]

What would you expect to happen if the stock didn't shut down, and what would it look like to you when the mackerel fisheries are ready to reopen?

[Dr. Sebastián Pardo]

We would see much more mackerel everywhere when the fishery is ready to reopen, if it has rebuilt to the point where it's above the critical zone. It's a place it hasn't been over the last decade. The mackerel people would be seeing it at a level all around the region higher than they'd seen in a long time. That's what it would look like. It would be, I would say, bountiful.

[Lisa Marie Barron, NDP, Nanaimo—Ladysmith, BC]

Thank you, Mr. Pardo.

Ms. Schleit, do you have any comments on the questions I asked?

[Katie Schleit]

Yes. Thank you.

Similar to Dr. Pardo, I think we were seeing these signs for years that the stock was going to continue to decline at current harvest levels. That is what we saw year after year, until finally the latest science showed that it was at the lowest level ever recorded, with very few larger fish and also very little of the necessary recruitment.

There was a blip in 2015, when we had what's called a larger-year class, but that was essentially fished out within a few years due to the high TAC levels. I guess we'd expect to see many indicators showing signs of decline if we were looking at a healthier stock.

[The Chair, Liberal, Ken McDonald]

Thank you, Ms. Barron.

We'll now go to Mr. Perkins for five minutes or less.

[Rick Perkins, Conservative, South Shore—St. Margarets, NS]

Thank you, Mr. Chair. Thank you, witnesses.

My questions are primarily for Dr. Robert.

Dr. Robert, you participate in the annual spawning mass bioscience studies that are done by DFO on mackerel. Is that correct?

[Dr. Dominique Robert]

I'm usually a participant, yes, but not on all of them.

[Rick Perkins, Conservative, South Shore—St. Margarets, NS]

When was the last time it was done?

[Dr. Dominique Robert]

The last time it was done I was there online.

[Rick Perkins, Conservative, South Shore—St. Margarets, NS]

Was that last year, in 2021?

[Dr. Dominique Robert]

Yes.

[Rick Perkins, Conservative, South Shore—St. Margarets, NS]

The water temperature needs to be between 10°C to 13°C for mackerel to spawn. Is that correct?