Thank you.
My name is Butch Dalton. I'm the president of the Miramichi Salmon Association and the New Brunswick Salmon Council.
Thank you for the opportunity to appear before the committee today.
I'm joined by my colleague Mark Hambrook, president emeritus.
I'm here to provide the perspective of those working directly with Atlantic salmon conservation and to speak specifically to the factors affecting salmon recovery in the Miramichi.
Atlantic salmon populations throughout Atlantic Canada have declined dramatically over the past several decades despite investments in research, habitat restoration, conservation measures and management interventions. There's no single cause for the decline. Atlantic salmon face multiple pressures throughout their life cycle, including changing ocean conditions, poor marine survival, warming rivers, habitat degradation and, specifically for this committee, predation. The challenge is that many of these pressures are occurring simultaneously, making recovery increasingly difficult.
From the perspective of those working in the Miramichi, one of the most significant ecological changes over the past two decades has been the remarkable increase in striped bass abundance. Those of us who spend our lives on the river have witnessed this change first-hand. Striped bass are now found throughout much of the watershed, including in areas in which they were rarely encountered historically, and they overlap extensively with Atlantic salmon smolts during one of the most vulnerable periods of the Atlantic salmon life cycle: the migration from fresh water to the ocean.
Importantly, these concerns are not based solely on observation by anglers or conservation groups. Scientific studies conducted by universities, conservation organizations, and Fisheries and Oceans Canada have confirmed that striped bass, in fact, do consume Atlantic salmon smolts. Smolts have been found in striped bass stomach contents, and acoustic telemetry studies have repeatedly identified the lower Miramichi and estuary as a major mortality bottleneck for migrating smolts.
Recent studies using advanced predation detection tags have provided even stronger evidence. These studies indicate that a substantial proportion of smolt losses are the result of predation by fish and that much of the mortality occurs in the same area in which striped bass are concentrated during spawning. Experimental work has also demonstrated that smolt survival improves significantly when fish are transported around this section of the river rather than migrating through it naturally.
Taken together, the science tells us that the question is no longer whether predation occurs but whether the current abundance of striped bass is creating mortality levels that are limiting salmon recovery. From our perspective, that concern is legitimate, and it deserves serious consideration.
The Miramichi Salmon Association operates one of the longest-running Atlantic salmon monitoring programs in North America. For many years, our data suggested that freshwater production was not the primary problem. The river continued to produce substantial numbers of smolts, but too few of them survived to return as adults. That observation closely aligns with scientific studies showing that mortality is concentrated during migration through the estuary and early marine environment.
What is particularly concerning is that we are now beginning to see signs that production itself may be declining. Preliminary results from this year's smolt monitoring on the northwest Miramichi indicate substantially fewer out-migrating smolts. In addition, thermal refuges that once held thousands of juvenile salmon during periods of extreme temperatures are now supporting very few fish. While these observations warrant further study, they suggest that the population is becoming increasingly stressed.
Current management measures have not halted the decline of Atlantic salmon. While predator management alone will not restore salmon populations, predator-prey interactions must become a much more important component of a recovery plan. Likewise, seal predation, marine survival, climate change and habitat degradation must all be considered as part of a comprehensive strategy.
In the near term, we need to continue investing in monitoring, habitat restoration and conservation hatcheries. We also need to make better use of the scientific information that is already available and adopt a more adaptive and ecosystem-based approach to management.
From a population perspective, there is a growing concern that Atlantic salmon in the Miramichi may have declined to a point at which natural recovery will be extremely difficult without intervention. Increasing the number of smolts entering the system through conservation supplementation may be necessary to rebuild abundance and improve resilience while broader recovery measures are implemented.
In closing, I'm not here to suggest that striped bass are the sole cause of Atlantic salmon declines; they are not. However, the scientific evidence, combined with what we are observing on the river, indicates that predation by striped bass is one of several factors affecting smolt survival and should be considered within any serious Atlantic salmon recovery strategy.