Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
I will also be brief so there will be ample time for questions and dialogue. Following on the former prime minister's statement, I just want to expand on what she said somewhat.
William Perry, former defense secretary of the United States, said recently that in his judgment there is a greater than 50% chance of a nuclear detonation on U.S. soil in the next ten years. That could just as easily be Canadian soil, because terrorists strike wherever they see opportunities. Senator Sam Nunn, former chairman of the U.S. Senate Committee on Armed Services, wrote in 2004 that because long-range strategic nuclear missiles continue to be kept on hair-trigger alert 15 years after the end of the Cold War, in which they served absolutely no useful purpose except to threaten our continued joint existence, they are leading us into a situation where some day there could be—and these are his words—“an Armageddon of our own making”.
Ambassador Paul Nitze, the architect of the U.S. nuclear weapons policy over many decades, wrote an article in 1999, towards the end of his life, in The New York Times in which he made it clear that the time had come when nuclear weapons were now a greater threat to us than anyone else, and that it was time for their complete elimination worldwide.
The centrepiece of world security in today's world, as Prime Minister Campbell has indicated, is the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. It prevented a situation where there could be as many as 40 nuclear-weapon states in the world today, meaning that every conflict would run the risk of going nuclear, and that it would be impossible to keep nuclear weapons out of the hands of terrorists, given that the weapons would be so widespread. The principal reason that didn't happen was the negotiation of this treaty and its entry into force in 1970, and its indefinite extension in 1995.
However, this treaty is based on a central bargain; we didn't get it for free. The central bargain is that the nuclear-weapons states—the United States, United Kingdom, France, Russia, and China—pledged to pursue disarmament measures aimed at the ultimate abolition of nuclear weapons. And it was made very clear in the negotiating record what those principal measures were deemed to be: a comprehensive test ban prohibiting all nuclear tests worldwide; drastic reductions in nuclear arsenals; a treaty prohibiting the further production of nuclear bomb material; and legal safeguards in which the nuclear-weapons states pledged they would never use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear-weapons states parties to the NPT. That's the least that could be expected of treaty partners, one would think.
Thirty-six years later, none of those measures have been delivered. This part of the basic bargain remains unfulfilled. The other part on the nuclear-weapons-states' side was the sharing of peaceful nuclear technology. In exchange for that, the rest of the world—some 180-plus countries—pledged never to acquire nuclear weapons. But it was a bargain, and the nuclear-weapons states have not delivered on that bargain, and that delivery still remains uncertain, which is what our MPI brief is all about.
Now the other side of the bargain is beginning to fall apart, in part given the long neglect on one side. North Korea has withdrawn from the treaty and built, it is estimated, up to nine or ten nuclear weapons. And all of you know about the Iranian crisis, where Iran is believed to be pursuing nuclear weapons. These are not the only situations; there are also India, Pakistan, Brazil, Ukraine, and other countries that could be problems.
Further, we have a situation where the demands for power worldwide are growing exponentially, and this will require nuclear power to be used worldwide. But it can't be used at all effectively in the absence of a strong Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty regime providing the necessary safeguards.
Further, we now live in a world completely different from anything we've known in hundreds of years. For the first time since the Middle Ages almost, no major state threatens another major state; rather, the threat is deterioration in world order, with 50 to 70 failed or failing states and the rise of international terrorism. In this extremely dangerous situation in which we find ourselves, it is of the greatest importance that this treaty, the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, be revived and strengthened and that the central bargain of the treaty be fully implemented.
Canada has long shown leadership on this subject and has made very important contributions in the past. I very much hope they will continue.
Thank you.