Good morning, Mr. Chairman, ladies and gentlemen.
The Conference of Defence Associations is grateful for this opportunity to comment on the UN-mandated International Security Assistance Force, ISAF, an international force of more than 36,000 troops from 37 countries. This total does not include the commitment of an extra 700 Poles, an extra 500 Australians, an extra U.S. brigade of some 3,500, and the U.K. battle group of some 1,200. That will bring the total to over 40,000, all of whom will be deployed in the key southern and eastern provinces of Afghanistan. This deployment will also provide support for the work of the 25 provincial reconstruction teams, PRTs, across the whole country.
My recent 10-day visit to Afghanistan in late October and November, when I had the opportunity to speak with the Canadians there, provided me with a privileged although not unique perspective that I wish to share with you today.
That perspective allows me to report that the Canadian troops, both male and female, regular and reserve—as you know, some 15% of the contingent is from the reserve force—serving in Afghanistan believe in their mission. They believe they are making a difference. They believe that progress is being achieved. They believe in their leaders. They believe in the quality of their equipment, and they believe that they have been well prepared for their mission. Those are very important beliefs, because these troops are on the ground; they're the ones implementing the mission. They also believe that if they are withdrawn before the mission has achieved its objectives, all they have sacrificed will be put at risk.
We must also remember that the ISAF mission, which is a Canadian mission, is about a lot more than purely military operation. It is not just about killing the Taliban in the mountains—far from it. ISAF is also involved in the reconstruction of the formerly failed state that has slowly advanced to the status of a fragile state.
Such Canadian responsibilities include the PRT in Kandahar, which has a strength of about 250. That includes not just Canadian Forces but a number of RCMP officers, Foreign Affairs officers, and CIDA officers. Critical assistance in developing the governance capabilities of the elected Government of Afghanistan is provided by the strategic assistance team in Kabul—some 15 officers from DND, mostly military but some civilian. They work very closely with the Afghan government—in fact, they work very closely with each minister of the cabinet. That's a very important and unknown program. This is part of the tangible Canadian contribution that also includes very important assistance in the training of the Afghan National Army, and especially the training of the Afghan National Police.
Canadians understand that there are no quick fixes for the reconstruction of a fragile state. After 25 years of brutal war everything needs to be rebuilt. That being said, the situation is much better than it was six years ago under the Taliban, and better than it was over a year ago when the Canadian battle group was deployed in Kandahar. Progress is being made.
We in ISAF are not there as invaders—that's an important dimension to remember; we are there at the request of the elected Government of Afghanistan, and under a UN mandate. The people of Afghanistan are weary of war, destitution, and hopelessness. The majority of the Afghan people want us there. Recent BBC and Asia Foundation polls conducted before Christmas indicate that 80% of the citizens support the presence of the coalition soldiers in Afghanistan. They want the economic and social development progress that is taking part in much of the country to spread to all parts of the country, including the south and east.
They fear what would happen to them if our search for an early exit strategy places its emphasis upon exit rather than upon strategy and leads to the callous abandonment of a fragile but growing state that is still too weak to stand up to its oppressors. They especially fear the return of the Taliban and its partners in crime, drugs and terrorism.
Ladies and gentlemen, our presentation will deal with four topics: criteria for assessing the ISAF mission's effectiveness, the ISAF concept of operation, assessing the success of the ISAF operation, and finally assessing the consequences of a premature withdrawal of ISAF.
The CDA believes the ISAF mission and Canada's considerable part in it will be considered to have been effective and successful if and when the campaign of terror being waged by the Taliban and their extremist allies fails, security is restored to the point that ordinary Afghans enjoy personal liberty and freedom from fear, the Afghan army and police become effective in ensuring security, the country's market economy begins to flourish, central Afghan government control spreads throughout the country, human rights are respected, a significant infrastructure development program is under way, and the elements of a made-in-Afghanistan democratic system of government spread to all parts of the country.
It is obvious that achieving the foregoing is a phenomenally complex and difficult undertaking. Nevertheless, the CDA believes the absence of any one of the above criteria would put the successful completion of the ISAF mission in doubt. It is also important to remember that it is better to help Afghans do it imperfectly than do it ourselves. In essence, our approach should be an Afghan face at an Afghan pace.
Next I will discuss the ISAF concept of operation. The mission of the NATO ISAF is to conduct military operations in order to assist the government of Afghanistan in establishing and maintaining, with the full engagement of the Afghan national security forces, a safe and secure environment that will allow the government to extend its authority and influence and thereby facilitate Afghanistan's reconstruction and establish regional stability.
From its inception, this mission has consisted of five phases. The first one, phase one, was assessment and preparation, including operations in Kabul. Phase two was geographic expansion, which is now completed. Phase three is stabilization; phases four and five are transition and redeployment.
In October 2003 the UN Security Council authorized the extension of the NATO mission beyond Kabul. In October 2004 stage one of the expansion to the north was completed, with stage two in the west following in September 2005. Stage three of the expansion—to include the south--was completed on July 31, 2006. Remember that: 2006, less than a year ago. Stage four—to include the east—was completed on October 6, 2006.
Currently the Canadian Forces and seven other nations, as part of the ISAF Regional Command South, are engaged in the early stages of the stabilization phase, whereas in the ISAF Regional Command West and ISAF Regional Command North the Germans, the Italians, and the Spaniards in particular have progressed further into the stabilization phase of the operation.
I would now ask my colleague, retired Colonel Brian MacDonald, a CDA senior defence analyst, to provide you with his assessment on whether the ISAF operation is a success and on the dangers of a premature withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Thank you.