Foreign Affairs Committee on Aug. 8th, 2011

[MGen Jonathan Vance]

When you say “ground resources”, do you mean ground resources in Italy?

[Peter Goldring, Conservative, Edmonton East, AB]

Yes, in Italy.

[MGen Jonathan Vance]

Yes, they are. They are a host nation for those forces that are in Italy. There is an existing or extant NATO command structure already there in Naples, in Poggio, so the headquarters and so on that were already part of the NATO structure are there. Italy plays that part in hosting, and they are also a member of the coalition that is flying.

[Peter Goldring, Conservative, Edmonton East, AB]

Are they providing the facilities for many other countries as well? Canada's resources amount to--what, about 10% of the aircraft resources in operation in the region? Would that be about it?

[MGen Jonathan Vance]

We're flying about 6% of the sorties, so as a baseline sortie rate, I would say about 6% is probably accurate.

[Peter Goldring, Conservative, Edmonton East, AB]

What other countries have resources there, predominantly?

[MGen Jonathan Vance]

There is a long list of nations involved in varying degrees in this operation. Some are flying only certain types of missions, while others are operating from aircraft carriers. For example, the French were operating off the Charles de Gaulle until recently, and were launching fighters off that aircraft carrier.

To give you the detail of who is where and what aircraft they are providing, I can take that question on notice and get back to you with an itemized list. I don't have that at hand.

[Peter Goldring, Conservative, Edmonton East, AB]

Yes. It would be just to see whether it's overly heavily weighted with specific countries or not, or whether it is a regional effort. Is there a fair balance?

We know that in Afghanistan some primary countries were involved in providing a greater number of resources, such as the United States and Britain. Is the same kind of balance of percentage involved in Libya?

[MGen Jonathan Vance]

I would say it's a fairly decent balance. Of course, the United States is not playing the same role it did in Afghanistan, but it's still obviously playing a role. This certainly could not happen without the support of the United States.

It's a good question and it deserves a better answer than I can provide from memory. The best answer would be an itemized list that we can give you of who is doing what and what missions they're flying

[Peter Goldring, Conservative, Edmonton East, AB]

Madam Ambassador, are you encouraged by the amount of international support being given here? Do you have any comments you'd like to make on the cohesiveness of the support that is being given? Are there missing elements, or do you have the package of resources that you need in the vicinity from the variety of countries?

[Her Excellency Sandra McCardell]

I think so. As I mentioned when discussing some of the broad participation in the contact group, we've been really pleased to see that this is a wide effort. That's always a concern when you start a military mission in another country, because you want to make sure it is widely accepted. We started with the UN Security Council resolutions, which provided the correct legal framework for us. We were able to draw on the call from the Arab League for the no-fly zone; it was unprecedented, and a really important sign of the regional support for that operation.

On the political side, the same countries that are engaged on the military side are probably also engaged politically, although it is a little bit broader than that. For example, Germany did not participate in the military mission but has been much more active on the political side. There are some distinctions like that.

We are pleased and encouraged by the breadth of support. Of course, I am one of the refugees and also wish that it had ended very quickly, because I was also evacuated on a C-17. All that I own is still in a house in Tripoli, so beyond my professional interest, I have a personal interest in really seeing this come to a close because of what has happened to us and because of the people I knew in Tripoli and the Libyans I knew who, quite frankly, deserve something better than what they've had for the last 40 years.

We can always aim higher, but I think the international focus and determination to keep going and to see the job through is important, and I think it's present.

[Peter Goldring, Conservative, Edmonton East, AB]

So to this stage, it's still cohesive and there's still enthusiasm to carry forward? There isn't wavering from certain specific elements at all?

[Her Excellency Sandra McCardell]

I think there's a determination that this needs to be seen through, yes.

[The Chair, Conservative, Dean Allison]

Thank you, Mr. Goldring, and Ambassador.

I think we have time for one more round. I'm going to start the last round with Mr. Dechert, for five minutes.

[Bob Dechert, Conservative, Mississauga—Erindale, ON]

Thank you, Mr. Chair.

General Vance, I understand there's a report out today that the rebel forces may be within 60 kilometres of Tripoli. I wonder if you could comment generally on the current status of the conflict between the NTC-led forces and the Gadhafi-led forces. Also, could you comment on how the NATO mission to date has degraded Gadhafi's military assets and give us your assessment of what his remaining strength is?

[MGen Jonathan Vance]

Thank you for the question.

In terms of the status of the conflict, I don't have much more to elaborate on beyond what I gave you in my opening statement. Roughly speaking, the fighting on the ground breaks down into three broad areas, although it is much more complex than that. Two of the areas are east of Tripoli and one is west and southwest of Tripoli. These areas are under command of anti-Gadhafi forces with local objectives. For example, the activities around Misrata are aimed at trying to further encroach upon Gadhafi's forces.

The situation has been described as somewhat static, which is accurate. As the anti-Gadhafi forces have gained access to resources and benefited from some experience and increased their capacity to turn people who were basically civilians into soldiers and gained some momentum, we have been seeing incremental increases and improvements, certainly this week in the southwest.

I don't think we are anticipating a cataclysmic military end as a result of ground movement by anti-Gadhafi forces. It's slow and steady. We're certainly not seeing the reverse either--that is, pro-Gadhafi forces being able to fundamentally change the situation--because they would then not only face the anti-Gadhafi forces but also NATO forces.

[Bob Dechert, Conservative, Mississauga—Erindale, ON]

What's your assessment of the remaining strength of the Gadhafi forces?

[MGen Jonathan Vance]

I don't have an assessment immediately at hand, sir. I will take that under notice.

There is certainly degradation. Generally speaking the capacity of Gadhafi's forces to harm civilians has been degraded and continues to be monitored, and is therefore unlikely to happen easily. However, there is not an obvious effort to return to cantonment sites or to bases, which would indicate that they are going to stop fighting under the Berlin goals. Therefore, there is continued pressure by both ground forces and NATO to keep that pressure on so that this second objective does come to pass.

[Bob Dechert, Conservative, Mississauga—Erindale, ON]

Right.

[MGen Jonathan Vance]

I do note that we owe you a response on the degradation of those forces.

[Bob Dechert, Conservative, Mississauga—Erindale, ON]

Okay, thank you.

For Ambassador McCardell, what kind of role can Canada play in a post-Gadhafi Libya?

[Her Excellency Sandra McCardell]

I'm glad that members of the committee are asking that question, because we've been so very focused on our current mandate and current objectives that we're forgetting somewhat that there is a lot of work to be done after this ends. That's an important question.

As I mentioned, the contact group meetings are attended by the UN special adviser on post-conflict planning. We use that opportunity to meet with him and to assess where the UN planning is on this and to coordinate with the United Nations, which will likely lead an eventual effort in a post-Gadhafi Libya.

We are also working with other government departments, including CIDA and the Department of Foreign Affairs and its stabilization and reconstruction task force, to look at what the likely needs will be in Libya after Gadhafi. To that extent, we're building on a really excellent U.K.-led assessment team that went into Benghazi a couple of months ago and began a process of assessing what the conditions were likely to be on the ground and what the priorities would be. A Canadian expert participated in that assessment. It has provided a very good foundation for where we'll probably need to start. We're looking at what those needs are and coordinating with international partners and the UN to see what's likely and who will be looking after what part of this plan eventually. Then we'll look at targeted assistance in areas where Canada has the capacity to add value and can make a very useful contribution.

That's under way, and we hope we can implement it very soon.

[Bob Dechert, Conservative, Mississauga—Erindale, ON]

Thank you.

[The Chair, Conservative, Dean Allison]

We'll move back to Madame Ayala.

[Paulina Ayala, NDP, Honoré-Mercier, QC]

Good afternoon.

Given that Gaddafi's sphere of influence goes far beyond Libya and that the colonel is seen by a number of African leaders as the grand poobah of Africa, his influence extends over the entire Sahelo-Saharan region: 28 countries, the majority of which are among the most unstable in the world.

What is going to be done to take over the roles that Gaddafi has played in this entire region, both financially and geopolitically? Is there a regional strategy like the NATO and Canadian one? Is one already in place? Do we realize that Libya is just the tip of the iceberg, an iceberg that covers an area of millions of square kilometres where no stable democracy exists?

The example of Somalia, which itself is one of the Sahelo-Saharan states after all, shows us clearly that it is impossible to protect the civilian population in an unstable sociopolitical context, especially with terrorist or criminal groups in the area. Those same groups are active all over the Sahelo-Saharan region and are just waiting for political regimes to weaken so that they can tighten their grip.

Is Canada ready to spend years dealing with the regional instability that will result from the collapse of the Gaddafi regime that, like it or not, was playing a mediating role in that sensitive area?

Are we aware that Gaddafi will maintain his influence—especially if he stays where he is—and that he will be able to use it against the new government in Libya or, worse yet, to stir up trouble in the entire region in order to undermine NATO's efforts?

Okay, that's all.