Exactly.
The last part of your question is on how far he would go. Obviously, I don't have a crystal ball, but if you look at the example of Georgia—how quickly he started the war, which escalated beyond proportion, notwithstanding the statements from the west and NATO and so on. Considering that he's already in Ukraine with military forces at the Black Sea, I think it would be very easy to set up some sort of a provocation and to even launch a full-scale military invasion, as necessary, if he cannot achieve his desires by other means.
Therefore, I think it's paramount for Canada, its western allies, and NATO to pull Ukraine closer into their sphere of influence and to make sure that this region does not become destabilized.